Mitt Romney will win. The tie in the polls goes to the challenger. Here’s
why:
Enthusiasm. It
matters enormously, and it’s disproportionately on the Republican side, in good
measure because of an intense desire to defeat President Obama. True, enthusiasm
doesn’t guarantee an edge in turnout, but it’s certainly a key indicator. “In
these final days, turnout is driven by intensity,” says Republican pollster Ed
Goeas. The nearly half the electorate that strongly disapproves of Obama’s
performance in office “will need little else other than the opportunity to vote
against President Obama to motivate them to go to their polling place.” Goeas
conducts the bipartisan Battleground Poll along with Democrat Celinda Lake.
In 2008, self-identified Democrats led Republicans in turnout
by seven percentage points. Gallup’s projection is that Republicans will have a
49-46 percent edge this year. “The political environment and the composition of
the likely electorate strongly favor Governor Romney,” Goeas says. The
Battleground Poll’s “vote election model” projects Romney with 51 percent.
Ground
game. The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite
the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better
than four years ago. The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time.
Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the
National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together
a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states.
They’ve averaged
1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.
Early voting numbers are further evidence of ground game
parity. Democrats have a slight edge, but their numbers are down significantly
from 2008. Far more Republicans have voted early this year than in 2008.
Undecideds.
Undecided voters are thought to vote disproportionately for the challenger over
a sitting president. In truth, there’s no empirical evidence for this widely
acknowledged tendency. But to the extent it exists, it helps Romney. Goeas, for
one, figures most still undecided voters simply won’t vote.
Indicators. Many
point to a Romney win. He does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such
as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent),
weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun
owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such
as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters
(52 percent).
Obama has large leads among groups such as Hispanics with a
lower propensity to vote. “If the president’s campaign is not able to replicate
his 2008 electorate (which is looking increasingly unlikely), the president
loses,” Goeas says.
Issues. The most
important ones favor Romney: the economy, the deficit, and the debt.
Independents, the demographic group most sensitive to these issues, went for
Obama by eight percentage points in 2008. Now they’re tilting to Romney by
roughly the same percentage.
Conclusion: Romney will be
elected the 45th president of the United
States.
1 comment:
He was wrong.
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