Two Polls Show McCain Ahead Of Huckabee In State By Dan Hoover, Greenville News

January 18, 2008

Greenville News: Two Polls Show McCain Ahead Of Huckabee In State

Romney, Thompson in third-place tie
By Dan Hoover

Two polls released Thursday give Arizona Sen. John McCain seven- and eight-point leads over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee heading into Saturday's South Carolina Republican presidential primary.

In the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Monday-to-Wednesday tracking poll, McCain had 29 percent to Huckabee's 22 percent.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson displaced former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for third place, 14 percent to 12 percent, although their numbers were a statistical tie within the plus or minus 3.4 percentage point margin of error.

Also, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas edged ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has all but abandoned his campaign in South Carolina to focus on Florida's Jan. 29 primary. Paul had just over 5 percent, and Giuliani 5 percent, another statistical dead heat.
Undecided respondents numbered 10 percent.

Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling had its Monday night numbers at 28 percent for McCain. Huckabee has 20 percent, and Romney and Thompson had 18 percent and 17 percent respectively, essentially a statistical tie for second. Paul and Giuliani had 4 percent each.
The polls' tracked a Clemson University Poll conducted from Jan. 9 through Wednesday, showing McCain leading Huckabee, 29-22; Romney third at 13 percent; Thompson, fourth, 10 percent; Paul, fifth, 6 percent; and Giuliani, sixth, 3 percent.

Pollster John Zogby said Romney got no discernible bump from Tuesday's victory over McCain in the Michigan primary, and "we are also seeing that any pickup for Thompson hurts Huckabee in this race, which is as close as any we have seen."

PPP's analysis was similar, concluding, "Michigan didn't really do anything to alter the landscape in South Carolina. With some small shifts, everyone is in the same place they were when we polled the race late last week."

The key finding here is that the McCain results are at the same 28 percent, and his lead over Huckabee has increased from seven points to eight. Romney went up one point after winning Michigan.

The big gainer is Fred Thompson, who has campaigned heavily in the state and went from 14 percent to 17 percent.

Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul each dropped a point, going from 5 percent to 4 percent.

Greenville News: Two Polls Show McCain Ahead Of Huckabee In State

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain Still Leads in South Carolina

Huckabee still No. 2, Thompson boots Romney from No 3 spot

Utica, NY – Arizona Sen. John McCain kept his lead in South Carolina in the second installment of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, just as he was in the survey released yesterday. Their levels of support have remained static, with McCain holding steady at 29% and Huckabee losing just a point to stand at 22%.

There have been shifts lower down, however. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has ousted former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney from the number three spot. Romney, who won the Michigan primary Tuesday, dropped a point, from 13% support to 12%, while Thompson jumped two points to 14%.

Pollster John Zogby will host a live online chat on Friday, Jan. 18th at 2:30 PM EST, to recap Michigan results and to discuss its implications on the road to the White House! For Zogby subscribers only – go to www.zogby.com to subscribe and see the latest polling details you cannot get anywhere else.

Also, Texas Congressman Ron Paul has edged ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. But at 5% support, but Paul is ahead just by a fraction of a point. Giuliani, who is focusing his campaign efforts on Florida and who lost a point since yesterday’s tracking poll.

Republicans - South Carolina
1-14/16 -- 1-13/15

McCain - 29% - 29%

Huckabee - 22% - 23%

Thompson - 14% - 12%

Romney - 12% - 13%

Paul - 5% - 5%

Giuliani - 5% - 6%

Undecided - 10% - 10%

About 10% of likely voters said they were still undecided. The rolling tracking survey was taken between Jan. 14 and Jan. 16. The surveys included 815 interviews with likely voters, which included a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Among Republican voters, McCain gained a point to reach 30% support from his party. Huckabee, however, gained close to four points among Republicans, moving from 20% support to almost 24%. McCain, meanwhile, lost about four points among independent voters, sinking from 33% to 29% support. Huckabee, too, lost support from independents, but just by a point, going from 20% to 19%.

Romney saw his support slip among Republicans, as Thompson gained. Both were at 14% Tuesday, but Romney dropped to 13% while Thompson ticked up to 16%.

Paul, who had dominated among younger voters, lost ground in the 18-29 age group, going from 31% support to 23%. McCain jumped from 6% to 14% with younger voters, and Huckabee picked up four points to reach 32% support with that group. McCain continued to get most support from senior citizens and people aged 50 and over, though he lost a few points with those between 30 and 49. Huckabee’s support among those over 30 remained consistent.

Pollster John Zogby: “There was no discernible bump for Romney coming out of Michigan. We are also seeing that any pickup for Fred Thompson hurts Mike Huckabee in this race, which is as close as any we have seen. Sen. John McCain is in a good position to win, but he has to close the deal against a surging Romney.

“McCain is getting a good share of evangelicals and Thompson is doing very well among very conservative voters. Will Thompson help McCain win? Will Romney get his bounce from Michigan and help McCain go down to defeat? We are waiting to see.”

For a complete methodology statement on this poll, please visit:http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1255

McCain camp goes on offense in S.C

By Maeve Reston, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

January 17, 2008

SPARTANBURG, S.C. -- John McCain's Republican presidential run collapsed in South Carolina eight years ago after what his campaign later acknowledged was a critical mistake: hesitating before responding to false accusations that the candidate's wife was a drug addict and that he fathered an illegitimate child.With South Carolina again emerging as a pivotal battleground in McCain's campaign for the presidency, his campaign is moving aggressively -- too aggressively, critics say -- to make sure the Arizona senator doesn't fall victim to personal smears again.

The centerpiece of its strategy is a group that calls itself the "truth squad." It was established this month to preempt or blunt any new political dirty tricks, such as a recent mailing sent to several dozen South Carolina newspapers accusing McCain of betraying fellow prisoners during the Vietnam War.

McCain's truth squad is headed by South Carolina Atty. Gen. Henry McMaster, state Speaker of the House Bobby Harrell and state Adjutant General Stan Spears. Even as the McCain campaign was preparing a mailer last week critical of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's record on abortion and taxes, McCain promised that his group would swing back hard if it saw anything reminiscent of the 2000 attacks against him.

The squad's role was evident Wednesday when Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a state co-chairman for the McCain campaign, appeared at a McCain rally in Greenville, S.C., and told the crowd to watch for "some garbage in the mail out there and the phone." He asked the veterans in the audience to "watch John's back."

At the next event, in Spartanburg, McMaster, another campaign co-chairman, said the political season was beginning to look like "Halloween with a full moon" where "people will do most anything.""Don't pay attention to that stuff," he said.

McCain told reporters on his campaign bus that "scurrilous stuff" had started again, referring to the mailing about his prisoner-of-war experience, among other things. "We will not let it go this time," he said.