Thursday, January 17, 2008

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain Still Leads in South Carolina


Huckabee still No. 2, Thompson boots Romney from No 3 spot

Utica, NY – Arizona Sen. John McCain kept his lead in South Carolina in the second installment of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, just as he was in the survey released yesterday. Their levels of support have remained static, with McCain holding steady at 29% and Huckabee losing just a point to stand at 22%.

There have been shifts lower down, however. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has ousted former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney from the number three spot. Romney, who won the Michigan primary Tuesday, dropped a point, from 13% support to 12%, while Thompson jumped two points to 14%.

Pollster John Zogby will host a live online chat on Friday, Jan. 18th at 2:30 PM EST, to recap Michigan results and to discuss its implications on the road to the White House! For Zogby subscribers only – go to www.zogby.com to subscribe and see the latest polling details you cannot get anywhere else.

Also, Texas Congressman Ron Paul has edged ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. But at 5% support, but Paul is ahead just by a fraction of a point. Giuliani, who is focusing his campaign efforts on Florida and who lost a point since yesterday’s tracking poll.

Republicans - South Carolina
1-14/16 -- 1-13/15

McCain - 29% - 29%

Huckabee - 22% - 23%

Thompson - 14% - 12%

Romney - 12% - 13%

Paul - 5% - 5%

Giuliani - 5% - 6%

Undecided - 10% - 10%


About 10% of likely voters said they were still undecided. The rolling tracking survey was taken between Jan. 14 and Jan. 16. The surveys included 815 interviews with likely voters, which included a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Among Republican voters, McCain gained a point to reach 30% support from his party. Huckabee, however, gained close to four points among Republicans, moving from 20% support to almost 24%. McCain, meanwhile, lost about four points among independent voters, sinking from 33% to 29% support. Huckabee, too, lost support from independents, but just by a point, going from 20% to 19%.

Romney saw his support slip among Republicans, as Thompson gained. Both were at 14% Tuesday, but Romney dropped to 13% while Thompson ticked up to 16%.

Paul, who had dominated among younger voters, lost ground in the 18-29 age group, going from 31% support to 23%. McCain jumped from 6% to 14% with younger voters, and Huckabee picked up four points to reach 32% support with that group. McCain continued to get most support from senior citizens and people aged 50 and over, though he lost a few points with those between 30 and 49. Huckabee’s support among those over 30 remained consistent.

Pollster John Zogby: “There was no discernible bump for Romney coming out of Michigan. We are also seeing that any pickup for Fred Thompson hurts Mike Huckabee in this race, which is as close as any we have seen. Sen. John McCain is in a good position to win, but he has to close the deal against a surging Romney.

“McCain is getting a good share of evangelicals and Thompson is doing very well among very conservative voters. Will Thompson help McCain win? Will Romney get his bounce from Michigan and help McCain go down to defeat? We are waiting to see.”

For a complete methodology statement on this poll, please visit:http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1255

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