Election 2010: Arizona Governor
Arizona Governor: Brewer 52%, Goddard 39%
Friday, May 21, 2010
After championing her state’s new immigration law in the face of criticism from President Obama and others, incumbent Arizona Governor Jan Brewer for the first time now attracts more than 50% support in her bid for reelection against likely Democratic candidate Terry Goddard.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Brewer with 52% of the vote and Goddard, who opposes the immigration law, with 39%. Seven percent (7%) prefer another candidate, while just three percent (3%) are undecided.
Arizona voters now support the new immigration law more than ever, with 71% who favor it versus just 24% who are opposed.
Brewer captures 69% of the votes of those who favor the law. Goddard, the state’s attorney general, earns 91% support from those who oppose it.
The incumbent’s support has been rising steadily over the past month since she outflanked Goddard and, despite his opposition, filed a suit challenging the recently-passed national health care plan. A mid-April survey saw Brewer with a 44% to 40% lead over Goddard. In late April, just after signing the popular new law to combat illegal immigration, the governor attracted 48% support to Goddard’s 40%. In March, by contrast, she had trailed 36% to 45%.
In earlier surveys, with support ranging from 35% to 41%, she had usually trailed or tied the Democrat.
Brewer now claims 45% of the vote in the state’s Republican Primary field. That’s a 19-point gain from a month ago and puts her well ahead of all her challengers.
Of those challengers, businessman Buz Mills is the only one who also leads Goddard. Mills holds a modest 45% to 38% lead over the Democrat in the new survey. Seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and 10% remain undecided.
Two other contenders for the GOP nomination are more or less even with the presumptive Democratic nominee. State Treasurer Dean Martin nominally leads him 41% to 40%, while Goddard bests former state GOP Chairman John Munger by a comparable 42% to 41% margin.
In both of these match-ups, 18% prefer another candidate or are undecided.
The Mills-Goddard match-up is little changed since last month, but Martin and Munger have both lost ground. Mills, Martin and Munger all carry bare majorities of those who favor the immigration law, while Goddard carries 84% or more of those who oppose it.
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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on May 17, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
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