Special Iowa Report: McCain the Big Winner; Hillary Suffers; Romney Devastated
by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney (more by this author)
by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney (more by this author)
Posted 01/04/2008 ETUpdated 01/04/2008 ET
Republicans
The surprising results of last night's Iowa Republican caucus were devastating for former Gov. Mitt Romney and vindicating for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, but the biggest winner may have been Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).
Romney:
Romney's distant second-place finish is devastating to the candidate who flooded Iowa with money, staffers, ads, and mailings. He outspent Huckabee by an order of magnitude, and still got only 25 percent to Huckabee's 34 percent.
Romney depended on a large staff and a much-vaunted organization. However that Election Day ground game worked, it couldn't compare with Huckabee's organic Christian uprising.
Because Romney has basically unlimited wealth to spend, he did not need to win Iowa in the same way Huckabee did. His race is not over, but his margin of loss last night reveals some potentially fatal flaws in Romney's campaign. For one, it leaves open the question of anti-Mormon bias among GOP voters.
Secondly, it shows that voters who know Romney very well weren't
particularly partial to him.
Romney can still win in New Hampshire, though the odds are not in his favor. And a Michigan win is hardly guaranteed. It's doubtful he can last until the February 5 primaries without any victories
Thanks to Romney's loss, McCain won big despite his fourth-place finish. An impressive third-place would have given McCain serious momentum into New Hampshire, but he is still the favorite there.
Letting the air out of Romney's balloon is a huge boost
to McCain, who once again is now at the front of the pack.
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