Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Swing State Tracking: Romney 49%, Obama 47%
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a
combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008
and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146
Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada,
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If
you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One
percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since
September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days,
and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from
the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s
debate win last Wednesday night.
Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain” they
will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are
certain they will vote for the president.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually
identical to his national margin.
Nationally, the candidates are tied in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
(Swing State Job Approval Data Below Table)
|
Release Date |
Obama |
Romney |
NET |
|
October 9, 2012 |
47 |
49 |
Romney +2 |
|
October 8, 2012 |
49 |
47 |
Obama +2 |
|
October 7, 2012 |
49 |
47 |
Obama +2 |
|
October 6, 2012 |
49 |
46 |
Obama +3 |
|
October 5, 2012 |
50 |
45 |
Obama +5 |
|
October 4, 2012 |
51 |
45 |
Obama +6 |
|
October 3, 2012 |
50 |
45 |
Obama +5 |
|
October 2, 2012 |
50 |
45 |
Obama +5 |
|
October 1, 2012 |
51 |
45 |
Obama +6 |
|
September 30, 2012 |
48 |
44 |
Obama +4 |
|
September 29, 2012 |
47 |
45 |
Obama +2 |
|
September 28, 2012 |
46 |
46 |
Even |
|
September 27, 2012 |
46 |
46 |
Even |
|
September 26, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 25, 2012 |
47 |
44 |
Obama +3 |
|
September 24, 2012 |
46 |
44 |
Obama +2 |
|
September 23, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 22, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 21, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 20, 2012 |
47 |
46 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 19, 2012 |
46 |
47 |
Romney +1 |
|
September 18, 2012 |
46 |
47 |
Romney +1 |
|
September 17, 2012 |
45 |
47 |
Romney +2 |
|
September 16, 2012 |
45 |
47 |
Romney +2 |
|
September 15, 2012 |
46 |
46 |
Even |
|
September 14, 2012 |
46 |
46 |
Even |
|
September 13, 2012 |
47 |
45 |
Obama +2 |
|
September 12, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 11, 2012 |
47 |
45 |
Obama +2 |
|
September 10, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 9, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
|
September 8, 2012 |
45 |
46 |
Romney +1 |
|
September 7, 2012 |
45 |
46 |
Romney +1 |
|
September 6, 2012 |
43 |
47 |
Romney +4 |
|
September 5, 2012 |
44 |
47 |
Romney +3 |
|
September 4, 2012 |
44 |
46 |
Romney +2 |
|
September 3, 2012 |
44 |
46 |
Romney +2 |
|
September 2, 2012 |
44 |
46 |
Romney +2 |
|
September 1, 2012 |
45 |
45 |
Even |
|
August 31, 2012 |
45 |
45 |
Even |
|
August 30, 2012 |
46 |
43 |
Obama +3 |
|
August 29, 2012 |
47 |
44 |
Obama +3 |
|
August 28, 2012 |
47 |
44 |
Obama +3 |
|
August 27, 2012 |
48 |
44 |
Obama +4 |
|
August 26, 2012 |
46 |
45 |
Obama +1 |
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The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 48%.
Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove. These figures include 28% who Strongly
Approve and 45% who Strongly Disapprove.
These results are derived from tracking poll data collected for the seven
days ending October 8, 2012. The sample includes approximately 1,300 Likely
Voters, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95%
level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports issues our daily Swing State Tracking Poll to supplement,
not replace, individual state polling. In Colorado and Ohio, Obama leads by a point. In Iowa and Nevada, the president is up two. He now leads by three
in Wisconsin and has jumped to double-digit leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Romney leads by one in Virginia and two in Florida. He’s ahead by three in Missouri, North Carolina and New Hampshire. See the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
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