Rodney Glassman has only a 1.5% chance of beating McCain
We began with the Goddard-Brewer race and analyzed the difference between poll numbers and your chances of winning are given the poll numbers.
Now the famed Nate Silver, from 538, who is the most accurate election predictor that I know of, getting every state in the 2008 election right except for one, Indiana (but which he did call a toss-up in advance and it was indeed a very close one in the end) through the use of complex algorithms, has weighed in on our own US Senate race.
Rodney Glassman has only a 1.5% chance of beating John McCain if the election was today.
I actually expect that number to drop even closer to zero once McCain starts his ad campaign against Glassman, and once the bigger media in the state start looking into Rodney’s past and start reporting on it. While McCain’s staff took a little break after his primary victory, Glassman lost most of his top staff, including his campaign
manager.
Nate Silver, a respected statistician who was once named one of Time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People, has used a formula based on collaborating polling data from several different pollsters, and he’s giving Glassman a 1.5 percent chance at beating John McCain in the general election.
Of course, Silver’s calculations don’t factor in things like a dead woman or a live boy, but barring any unforeseen incident, or dramatic turn in public support, McCain seems like a shoo-in for another six years.
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