Published on DickMorris.com on July 12, 2010
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Seven months ago, the conventional wisdom was that, while the Republicans would score impressive gains in both houses of Congress in the elections of 2010, the Democrats would keep control.
Now, it is that the Republicans may, indeed, capture the House, but never the Senate. Presidential press secretary Robert Gibbs admitted that the loss of the House was a possibility.The conventional wisdom is still wrong. The Republicans will take the Senate and the House.
Here's the Senate rundown:
Retiring Republicans
The GOP has six retiring incumbents. Kentucky and Kansas are no problem. In Missouri, Republican Roy Blunt is ahead and, in Ohio, Republican Ron Portman is slightly ahead. In New Hampshire, the Republicans have a fierce primary, but, trust us, if even Massachusetts went Republican, New Hampshire won't go Democrat. In Florida, Republican Rubio is in a tough race against turncoat former Republican Crist, but he will eventually pull through.
Easy Pickups: Delaware, Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota
Republicans hold a commanding lead in the three open seats and a double digit lead over Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.
The Balance of Power States:
Pennsylvania
Republican Pat Toomey is pulling ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak. Likely GOP pickup.
Colorado
Both parties have primaries but either Republican beats either Democrat. Another pickup.
Nevada
Despite a negative pounding, Sharron Angle is still ahead of Reid and Harry is decidedly under 50% of the vote in all polls. Probably Harry loses
Illinois
Tied race between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Giannoulais. Could go either way.
California
Carly Fiorina is only 3 pts behind Barbara Boxer and Boxer is under 50% and has been all year.
Could go either way
Washington
State Republican Dino Rossi is tied with incumbent Patty Murray and Murray is under 50%. Could go either way.
Wisconsin
Republican Ron Johnson who is not well known, is very close to Russ Feingold in the polls. Russ is still ahead but Johnson has a very good shot.
So of the seven balance of power states, the Republicans have to pick up six to take the Senate.
We probably will. In fact, the trend out there is so strong, the economy so bad, the Afghan War such bad news, the oil spill so awful that we likely win all seven.
Want to help?Carly Fiorina has enough money on her own.
But Sharron Angle (Nevada), Mark Kirk (Illinois), Dino Rossi (Washington State), and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) need help.Of this list, two need funds immediately. Angle needs help to counter the ferocious Reid negative ads. Reid has put $1 million behind a lying negative ad which uses a highly edited tape of Angle saying she wants to "phase out Social Security and Medicare."
What Sharron really said was that she wanted to phase out the method of funding which permits Harry Reid and co. to raid the fund to pay for their deficit. But, as Churchill said, a lie makes it halfway around the world before the truth gets its shoes on in the morning. Due to responses from previous mailings, the rebuttal now has $150,000 behind it, but we need more. Urgently.
Go here to donate to Sharron Angle
And...Dino Rossi in Washington State is facing Patty Murray in a unique primary on August 20th. In Washington, all candidates run on the same ballot and the top Republican then faces the top Democrat in November. If Rossi, who has a primary, can top Murray, who doesn't, he will show that he can win and will get huge national support. A little money now could put this race on ice.
Go here to donate to Dino Rossi
The Republican Party will win the Senate. We just need to all mobilize and send our checks where and when they will do the most good. Sign up to get our columns (for free) and get your friends to sign up and we'll call in the artillery barrages as we need them!
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