John McCain's Wild Ride: From Vulnerable Incumbent To Heavy Favorite By Eric Kleefeld TPM

July 21, 2010

Over the course of this campaign cycle, marked by anti-incumbent fervor and primary challenges galore, at least one Republican incumbent initially cast as extremely vulnerable has actually become more secure over time, after initial signs that he might be weak: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), the 2008 Republican nominee for president.

At first, it seemed McCain was in trouble. Polling had shown him with lackluster approval ratings, his past support for immigration reform made him vulnerable on the right, and the Tea Party crowd's ire at established politicians made the race appear ripe for an upset by former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, a longtime foe of illegal immigration. Indeed, even McCain's one-time campaign poster boy Joe The Plumber had renounced him, and was hoping for his defeat.

But then something happened: McCain straightened up, Hayworth fumbled, and the incumbent has been pulling away in all the polls. In mid-April, Rasmussen had Hayworth within five points of McCain. But today, the TPM Poll Average shows McCain leading by the hefty margin of 52.3%-30.6%, headed into the August 24 primary.

Take a look at the polling graph. You can see how this race has gone from being a threat to McCain to a seeming blowout:

A Republican source in Arizona has credited McCain's recent strong performance to a strong ad campaign. "I know the advertising for Sen. McCain has been overwhelming. It's been every night on television, everyday, his advertising campaign has been massive in scope," the source said. "I know at least if you were to say that the advertisement campaign has been effective, you could definitely correlate the poll numbers for Sen. McCain via the advertising campaign."

So what has McCain done correctly? First off, he has effectively recast himself from the image he had picked up of being a bipartisan maverick. In fact, he told Newsweek earlier this spring, "I never considered myself a maverick." (Check out TPM's video reel of McCain's forsaken nickname here). These days, McCain shows his rock-solid conservative side as a foe of President Obama -- a thoroughly credible shift, coming off his defeat against Obama in the 2008 election. As soon as the health care bill passed, McCain began campaigning to repeal it.

McCain has worked hard to win over the conservatives in his party. He held a high-profile rally in March with Sarah Palin, his former running mate and one of the idols of the Tea Party crowd. "Everyone here today supporting John McCain, we are all part of that Tea Party movement," Palin said at the rally, also giving this joking pitch
of McCain's bonafides: "When you talk about that Tea Party movement, some would claim John was there at that first Tea Party movement."

McCain has also tacked right on immigration, calling for a full-scale effort to seal the border. This political tack was embodied by his "complete the danged fence" ad, which in turn helped him expand his danged lead.

McCain also shook up his campaign staff this past spring, reworking his organization instead of being in any way complacent. Professor Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia credited McCain with recognizing that he could lose, and then working hard to counter it.

"McCain isn't especially credible when he tries to be Mr. Anti-Immigration, given his record, but he is very credible when he is Mr. Anti-Obama," Sabato told TPMDC. "Voters believe that the 2008 defeat by someone McCain regards as an inexperienced inferior sticks in McCain's craw. So when he attacks Obama, Republicans accept it and like it. McCain found his devil figure in the man who deprived him of his long-held dream of being president."

We asked a McCain adviser for response to some of Sabato's analysis. "I think the 'image 180' stuff is way overplayed. McCain's a conservative, always has been -- he was the Republican Party's nominee for President for goodness sake. It seems that when he opposed Bush he was a 'maverick' but when he bashes Obama he's a 'partisan.' Doesn't quite add up," the source said.

"It is true that unlike Charlie Crist, Bob Bennett and others, McCain read this unprecedented anti-incumbent environment well and early, and took aggressive action -- both in sharply defining Hayworth and working hard himself in the state -- to meet the challenge."