McCain Sets Fundraising Expectations By Reid Wilson

March 31, 2010

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) didn't even wait for the first quarter to come to a close before he began to set expectations, announcing he had raised $2.2M over the last 3 months.

McCain's campaign has $4.5M in the bank so far. The first quarter ends tonight at midnight, and reports aren't due to the Secretary of the Senate until Apr. 15.

By announcing so early, McCain is putting pressure on ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), who formally jumped into the race this quarter. Hayworth was a strong fundraiser during his career in Congress; in '06, he raised and spent $3M for his ultimately unsuccessful re-election bid.

Early voting starts at the end of July, meaning Hayworth has just under 4 months to raise money this time around. And even with McCain's unpopularity among some segments of the GOP base, Hayworth has struggled to raise money quickly.

A money bomb that was supposed to raise $100K in 24 hours last month fizzled; it took Hayworth's camp 5 days to pull in the money.

Given how pricey TV time is in the markets Hayworth has to hit, he's going to need to raise big bucks in a very short amount of time.

"It's hard to imagine J.D. getting his message out in the Phoenix TV market if he doesn't have at least $2 million to spend on message delivery," one GOP consultant not affiliated with either campaign said.

The consultant estimated that TV time in Phoenix would cost between $300 and $400 per point in advance of the Aug. 24 primary, meaning Hayworth will have to spend at least $1M on that market alone.

"Even with that, he is going to be outspent 3 to 1 or 4 to 1," the consultant said.

The Phoenix market reaches about 79% of AZ voters. Hayworth's camp will also have to spend in Tucson, which reaches another 18% of the state. The Yuma and Albuquerque markets each reach much smaller segments of the Copper State.