02/22/10
One of the factors that fueled the resurgence of the Democrats in the 2006 midterms and particularly President Obama's 2008 campaign was the enthusiastic backing of the "Millennial" generation -- voters between 18 and 29.
But a Pew Research Center study says that the Democrats' advantage over Republicans with this group has dramatically shrunk from a 32 point margin in 2008 to 14 points.
These numbers include both those who identify with one of the two parties, or lean towards one or the other.
The figures come from an ongoing series of reports Pew is doing, based on data it and others have collected from from May 1990 to December 2009, comparing the Millennials to past generations, such as the Gen-Xers , Baby Boomers and Silent Generation (1928-1945).
The reports cover not only political characteristics of the generations, but where they differ in areas including religion, social mores, and their use of media. You can find all the reports published so far here.The Democrats in 2008 led Republicans among these young voters in party affiliation by 62 percent to 30 percent, a margin now down to 54 percent to 40 percent.
Pew adds the caveat that the Republican gains do not include a significant rise in the number (22 percent) of Millennials who identify as Republicans when leaners are excluded. The leaners accounted for most of the overall GOP gain, almost doubling from 8 percent in 2008 to 15 percent in December.
The Democrat's advantage among Millennials when leaners are not counted has also lessened, from a 41 percent to 28 percent margin 2008 to 36 percent to 24 percent.
Looking at the midterm elections, Millennials say they will support the Democrats by 57 percent to 31 percent compared to the statistically-insignificant 45 percent to 43 percent advantage the Democrats hold among all voters. Gen-Xers favor the Democrats 45 percent to 44 percent, as do Boomers, by 46 percent to 42 percent. Silent Generation voters favor the Republicans 48 percent to 39 percent.
President Obama's support among Millenials has also slipped.
They supported him by about two-to-one in the presidential race and 73 percent said in February 2009 that they approved of his performance on the job. That approval now stands at 57 percent.
Obama's gets lower ratings from Gen X-ers, Baby Boomers, and particularly the Silent Generation.
Ideologically, 29 percent of Millennials describe themselves as liberals, 28 percent say they are conservatives and 40 percent identify themselves as moderates. That differs from the Gen-Xers, Boomers and Silent generation where the numbers of conservatives are higher.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. That matches yesterday’s result as the lowest level of strong approval yet recorded for this President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19 (see trends).
The only day that Barack Obama’s Approval Index ratings were lower than today was last December 22. Like today, that came at a time when the President was making a strong push for his proposed health care legislation. Most voters have consistently opposed that plan.
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