Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Election 2010: Massachusetts Special Senate Election - Rasmussen Reports™


Massachusetts Senate Election: Coakley (D) 49%, Brown (R) 47%

The Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election has gotten tighter, but the general dynamics remain the same.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley attracting 49% of the vote while her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, picks up 47%.
Three percent (3%) say they’ll vote for independent candidate Joe Kennedy, and two percent (2%) are undecided. The independent is no relation to the late Edward M. Kennedy, whose Senate seat the candidates are battling to fill in next Tuesday's election.


Coakley is supported by 77% of Democrats while Brown picks up the vote from 88% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%. To be clear, this lead is among unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the special election.

A week ago, the overall results showed Coakley leading by a 50% to 41% margin. The closeness of the race in heavily Democratic Massachusetts has drawn increasing national interest, and Brown made it clear in the final candidate debate last night that a vote for him is a vote to stop the national health care plan Democrats are pushing in Congress.

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The results of this poll are not precisely comparable with last week’s results because this poll includes the independent candidate by name while the previous poll simply offered the choice of “some other candidate." Additionally, the latest poll results include “leaners.”

Leaners are those who don’t initially have a preference for one of the major candidates but indicate that they are leaning in that direction. Without “leaners,” Brown was actually ahead by a single percentage point.

All recent polls place Coakley right around the 50% mark and support for opposition candidates above 40%. Turnout will be the key, and Brown’s voters appear to be more energized.

All polling indicates that a lower turnout is better for the Republican. The new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Brown is ahead by two percentage points among those who are absolutely certain they will vote. A week ago, he trailed by two among those certain to vote.

To overcome the enthusiasm gap and help generate a larger turnout, national Democrats are getting involved in the race. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is reportedly spending more than half a million dollars in the final days of a campaign that Coakley has long been the heavy favorite to win. Senator John Kerry in an emergency fundraising letter for Coakley today says the race is "a dead heat," and he and former President Bill Clinton plan to campaign in the state on Friday.
Brown raised over a million dollars on Monday and appears to have narrowed the financial gap so far. Coakley has gone negative in the second television ad of her campaign, one that includes Brown in front of a picture of conservative radio commentator Rush
Limbaugh. She also sought to link Brown to former President George W. Bush during the debate.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of likely voters in Massachusetts have a favorable opinion of Brown, and 58% say the same about Coakley.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters think Coakley will win the election, while 33% expect a victory for Brown.

Coakley, who was elected attorney general in 2006, defeated several other candidates to win her party’s nomination in a December 8 primary. Brown, who has served in the State Senate since 2004, won the GOP primary the same day.

Fifty-two percent (52%) favor the health care legislation before Congress, but 46% are opposed. Nationally, most voters oppose the proposed health care plan.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters say the man who tried to blow up an airline on Christmas Day should be tried by the military as a terrorist act while 21% believe the case should be tried by civilian courts as a criminal act. Seventy-seven percent (77%) now favor the use of full-body scanners at airports.
Forty-one percent (41%) believe the $787-billion economic stimulus plan passed by Congress last year helped the economy while 23% believe it hurt. That’s a much more positive assessment than the stimulus plan receives nationally.

However, even in Massachusetts, just 38% believe that increases in government spending generally help the economy. Forty-four percent (44%) say such spending generally has a negative impact. As for taxes, 56% believe that tax hikes are bad for the economy while 23% think they help.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Massachusetts voters think that more jobs will be created by cancelling the rest of the stimulus spending while 44% think spending the money will create more jobs.

Nationally, just over half believe that canceling the spending is the better tool for job creation.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of those likely to vote in this election still approve of the way that Barack Obama is doing his job as president. Just 40% approve of the way that Deval Patrick is handling his role as governor.

The survey was conducted on Monday night, the night of a televised debate between the candidates.
Rasmussen: Massachusetts race a dead heat
Senior Political Analyst01/12/10 5:33 PM EST

Pollster Scott Rasmussen’s latest numbers on that special Senate election in Massachusetts:
Democrat Martha Coakley 49%, Republican Scott Brown 47%, independent candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedys) 3%.
Rasmussen points out that this is not precisely comparable with his survey last week, which showed Coakley ahead 50%-41%, since in that survey it offered the choice of “some other candidate” and in this one Kennedy (whose inclusion in debates Coakley insisted on) was named. Turnout matters: this most recent poll shows Brown 2% ahead among those absolutely certain to vote. Obviously all these results are within the statistical margin of error, which means that either candidate could win.

Presumably this poll was taken last night, overlapping with the only televised debate of the campaign. It looks like Brown is picking up support as he becomes better known, while Coakley continues to hover right around the magic 50% mark, as she has done in all
recent polls.

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Posted by Tony GOPrano at 12:02 PM

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