POLITICO MAFIOSO: On Deck: June 18, 2009

On Deck: June 18, 2009 – New WSJ/NBC poll finds Americans are not pleased with President Obama’s handling of the economy, health care, auto industry and GITMO. Economists say Dem plan health care costs to burden private sector. House Leaders hold pressers today. OMB Director Orszag before House Budget Committee on PAYGO…see below for PAYGO reviews. And Dems elude President Obama’s lobbyist ban.

Please Reads:

· In Poll, Obama Is Seen As Ineffective On The Economy (The New York Times) Note: A substantial majority of Americans say President Obama has not developed a strategy to deal with the budget deficit, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, which also found that support for his plans to overhaul health care, rescue the auto industry and close the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, falls well below his job approval ratings.

· Rising Doubts Threaten To Overshadow Obama's Agenda, Public's Worries Grow on Budget Deficit, Moves in Economy (The Wall Street Journal) Note: After a fairly smooth opening, President Barack Obama faces new concerns among the American public about the budget deficit and government intervention in the economy as he works to enact ambitious health and energy legislation, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds. These rising doubts threaten to overshadow the president's personal popularity and his agenda, in what may be a new phase of the Obama presidency. "The public is really moving from evaluating him as a charismatic and charming leader to his specific handling of the challenges facing the country," says Peter D. Hart, a Democratic pollster who conducts the survey with Republican Bill McInturff. Going forward, he says, Mr. Obama and his allies "are going to have to navigate in pretty choppy waters."

· Health-Care Cuts Could Shift Costs (The Washington Post) Note: President Obama's plan to rein in federal spending on health care could end up shifting costs to the private sector, economists say. Unless doctors and hospitals are able to respond to the government cuts by becoming more efficient, the result could be higher costs for insurers, employers, and people with private medical coverage, they say. Historically, health-care spending has been a bit like a balloon: If it is squeezed in one place, it tends to bulge in another.

Here is what’s On Deck for Republicans:

· House Republican Leader John Boehner hold his weekly on-camera presser today at 11:45am in the House Radio/TV Gallery, U.S. Capitol.

· House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence and other House Leaders will hold a press conference today, June 18th at 1:45 p.m. in the House Radio/TV Gallery, H-321, the U.S. Capitol, on the current situation in Iran.

· House Members continue discussing preserving the American free market system in No More Bailouts -- A guest editorial by Reps. Scott Garrett, Jeb Hensarling And Tom Price (The Wall Street Journal) Note: The turmoil of the past year has caused us to reconsider what we believe to be the reality of the marketplace. Titans of industry, once considered impervious, proved that they weren't as resistant to crisis as was once thought. While the effects of this crisis are still evident in our communities, we've seemed to survive the most turbulent period. Now is the challenge of figuring out how to pick up the pieces to prevent a similar occurrence from happening again – all the while making sure that as we reassemble those pieces, what emerges preserves the free market system.

On The Democrat Side – What To Watch For:

· DCCC/DNC fundraiser tonight in DC. Did ya see this?

o Dems Dodge Ban On Cash From Lobbyists Note: President Barack Obama’s strict ban on lobbyist contributions will limit the haul from Thursday night’s fundraising dinner for congressional Democrats, but organizers have found a way around it: a morning-after event at the same hotel where lobbyists — and their money — will be welcomed with open arms. Invitations for the $5,000-per-person Issues Conference don’t say it’s an effort to skirt Obama’s lobbying ban, but they walk right up to the edge.

· Also, this morning OMB Director Orszag will testify before the House Budget Committee on PAYGO. See RNC Research Briefing below on President Obama’s PAYGO plan.

PAYGO: THE REVIEWS ARE IN
Obama's PAYGO Plan "Like Quitting Drinking, But Making An Exception For Beer And Hard Liquor."

NBC's Chuck Todd: Obama PAYGO Rhetoric "Completely Counter" To Spending Agenda. "But this is where [Obama and Congressional Democrats] send conflicting signals ... saying no we got to pinch, we got to tighten our belt, we got to pinch pennies ... but it actually runs completely counter to the argument they made as to why they needed to do the $800 billion stimulus." (MSNBC's "Morning Joe," 6/9/09)

Todd Wanted To Tell White House "We Don't Understand Your Budgeting Gimmicks." "And then you start reading the fine print. And it made me think of the "Saturday Night Live" skit where you had Phil Hartman playing an unfrozen caveman lawyer, and he'd say 'I'm just a caveman. But I don't know.' So you sit there and you want to ask Peter Orszag, 'We don't understand your budgeting gimmicks.'" (MSNBC's "Morning Joe," 6/10/09)

Todd: Obama's PAYGO "Sounds Like One Of Those Washington Schemes." "So you're saying this Pay-As-You-Go only applies to half of the budget, but it doesn't apply to discretionary spending, because that's year to year. Wait a minute, common sense says if you're going to Pay-As-You-Go, shouldn't that apply to everything? Isn't that the common sense test on this?' And that's the difficulty when you're selling it to middle America, where they're just going to sit there and say, 'Hey, this just sounds like one of those Washington schemes.'" (MSNBC's "Morning Joe," 6/10/09)

Maya MacGuineas, President Of The Bipartisan Committee For A Responsible Budget: "This is like quitting drinking, but making an exception for beer and hard liquor." (Lori Montgomery, "Some Democrats Warn Of Loophole In Obama's Pay-As-You-Go Rules," The Washington Post, 6/10/09)

Washington Post Editorial: Obama's PAYGO Rule Has "$2.8 Trillion Loophole." "First, as under existing House and Senate rules, what is known as the PAYGO law would not apply to discretionary spending programs, which account for about 40 percent of the federal budget ... Second, Mr. Obama would write into the law four whopping exceptions to the pay-as-you-go rule ... This adds up to a $2.8 trillion loophole over 10 years." (Editorial, "The Obama Diet," The Washington Post, 6/12/09)

Post: "[O]bama's Professions Of Being Willing To Make Hard Choices Are Belied By His Failure To Adjust His Spending Plans To Budgetary Reality." (Editorial, "The Obama Diet," The Washington Post, 6/12/09)

Post: Obama "[D]oesn't Deserve Much Credit For A Pay-As-You-Go Proposal That Elides This Reality Instead Of Confronting It." (Editorial, "The Obama Diet," The Washington Post, 6/12/09)

Washington Post's Lori Montgomery: Obama's PAYGO Plan Much Weaker Than Clinton Administration Policy. "One big difference between Obama's proposal and the Clinton-era rules, however, is that Obama would exempt an array of expensive policies currently in effect ... All told, those policies would increase annual budget deficits by more than $3.5 trillion over the next decade." (Lori Montgomery, "Some Democrats Warn Of Loophole In Obama's Pay-As-You-Go Rules," The Washington Post, 6/10/09)

Associated Press: Obama's Latest "'[P]ay-As-You-Go' Budget Formula Plan Is Significantly Weaker Than A Proposal Obama Issued With Little Fanfare Last Month." (Andrew Taylor, "Obama: It's OK To Borrow For Health Care," The Associated Press, 6/9/09)

Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND): Obama's PAYGO Will Not Reduce Deficit. "Pay-go can only do so much ... It can prevent the passage of new legislation that would worsen the deficit, but it does not address the deficits and debt projected under existing policy." ("Obama Urges 'Pay-Go' Legislation To Improve Budget Picture," FoxBusiness.com, 6/9/09)

New York Times: "[Last] Tuesday, Mr. Obama Was Talking About Saving Money, Not Spending It ... But Even If Paygo Were Restored, It Would Affect Only Future Spending, Without Putting A Dent In The Projected $1.8 Trillion Federal Deficit." (Sheryl Gay Stolberg, "One Day, Obama Pitches Stimulus Spending. The Next, He Urges Saving Money," The New York Times' "The Caucus" Blog, 6/9/09)

CBS News: OMB Director Peter Orszag Admits PAYGO Has Loopholes. "But briefing reporters, White House Budget Director Peter Orszag conceded some of PAYGO's limitations. It doesn't cover discretionary spending. In addition, about 40 percent of the federal budget, programs for education, energy, the military, etc., would not be covered by PAYGO ... As for existing deficits and the National Debt, which today stands at an all-time high of $1 1.39 trillion, PAYGO has no effect, other than to slow its growth by restraining some government spending." (Mark Knoller, "Would PAYGO Really Limit Spending?" CBS News' "Political Hotsheet," 6/9/09)