01/29/2009 Two of the 168 members of the Republican National Committee who will elect the party’s new national chairman Friday came to have lunch with me yesterday.
Each is backing a different horse in the six-candidate race for the GOP helm. But both wrote down their individual head counts of where the race is now and were in agreement: Bush-appointed Chairman Mike Duncan is the front-runner for re-election with forty-something votes, and his closest rival at this point is South Carolina State Chairman Katon Dawson, with a vote total in the low 30’s.
The question I had for both was how on earth does Duncan -- who came to the RNC post as operating head with Florida Sen. Mel Martinez (“Amnesty Mel”) as “general chairman” -- merit a bid for another term, let alone be in the position of front-runner?
“You get to do a lot of things when you’re the national chairman,” one of the pair told me. He noted that there are several key committees a chairman can appoint members to and that there are numerous foreign junkets to be doled out. And, of course, there is the “familiarity factor:” Duncan is a genuinely nice person and has had two years to know his colleagues who do the voting.
As to whether the members would actually use good nature and familiarity as a reason to elect someone to be their party’s top spokesman, that still seems a reach.
Just as they agreed Duncan is the front-runner, the two RNC members I spoke to concur in awarding Dawson second-place. The South Carolinian had a good week last week, picking up more endorsements from fellow Southerners such as Tennessee Chairman Robin Smith and National Committeeman John Ryder and non-Southerners such as North Dakota National Committeeman Curly Haugland, and National Committeewomen Dee Dee Benkie of Indiana and Demetra Del Monte of Illinois.
The leading argument against Dawson has been that he once belonged to a whites-only country club does not seem to be hurting him. Virtually all RNC members accept his explanation that he had been trying to integrate the club and many resent some of the internet sniping at the South Carolinian. (One anonymous salvo featured an ersatz headline of USA Today proclaiming “RNC Members Choose Whites-Only Chairman” and reporting that the White House “rejoices” over the election of Dawson as national chairman).
Who’s On Third?
My two inside sources say Michael Steele is in third place, but were not as confident as they were about Duncan and Dawson being one-two. The former Maryland lieutenant governor and Fox news commentator made a strong impression in the last debate before RNC members and clearly has strong across-the-board backing. Stalwart conservatives such as California RNC member Shawn Steel and more moderate fixtures such as Arizona Committeewoman Sharon Giese and Florida Chairman Jim Greer are on Team Steele.
Much like the country club charge against Dawson, the claim that Steele is somehow less than conservative just doesn’t seem to be sticking.
With respect to my two companions on the inside, my feeling is that Michigan Chairman Saul Anuzis caught a tailwind of sorts last week and probably has a slight edge over Steele. His endorsement from Colorado Chairman Dick Wadhams Monday came on the heels of a blessing from Rhode Island Chairman Gio (for Giovanni) Cicione. Last night (Tuesday), Washington State Committeewoman Fredi Simpson came out for self-styled “Kemp-Gingrich Republican” Anuzis.
In a conversation last week, Anuzis admitted he was not running first or second but pointed out “I’m second choice for a lot of folks.” If, as many expected, the balloting for chairman goes to four or five ballots, the Anuzis forces believe their man will start moving to the front.
Others are not so sure. As one of my lunch companions put it, “That was Rudy Giuliani’s strategy in ’08 -- just wait to later primary states and I will catch up. It didn’t work so well.
No one argues that former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is running fifth out of sixth (former Tennnessee Chairman Chip Saltsman is in last place and may not have the necessary votes to be nominated).
Blackwell did have strong backing from national conservative leaders and from such RNC conservatives as Virginia Committeeman Morton Blackwell and Texas Chairman Tina Benkiser (who is her self a candidate for national co-chairman). But he has never been able to build on that and release the names of new supporters on a regular basis as have the top four contenders.
As we concluded lunch the two RNC members were mulling over where Blackwell’s 12-to-15 estimated votes would go when and if he pulls out of the race (They both agreed they would be split among the “Big Four”).
Parting Shots
And that leads to the conclusion virtually no one on the inside of the RNC or outside and reporting on it argues: that the contest will go through several ballots, possibly six or seven, before someone gets the “magic 85” (majority) and a chairman is chosen. All expected horse-trading and wheeling and dealing to get intense.
In 1993, it took several ballots at the RNC conclave in St. Louis for Haley Barbour to overcome four opponents (two of whom served with him on the committee) and win the chairmanship.
Four years later, it also took a while for Jim Nicholson to beat six foes (all but one of whom was a RNC member) to become chairman.
So why should it be any different this year?
Sorry, I’m still not picking any winner. Just keep your eye on the candidates serving on the RNC now.
And -- surprise! -- both of my lunch companions requested anonymity.
John Gizzi is Political Editor of HUMAN EVENTS.
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