Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama
WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.
"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."
Posted by TOM BEVAN
USA Today/Gallup has released a new survey conducted over the weekend showing John McCain leading by four points among registered voters (50-46) and ten points (54-44) among those most likely to vote in November. That represents a 13-point net swing in McCain's favor since the last USA Today/Gallup poll taken in late August before both conventions:
McCain 54 (+9 vs. last poll August 21-23)Obama 44 (-4)
Overall, McCain has now take a 1-point lead in the RCP National Average, the first time he's held the lead since April 14.
Gallup Daily: McCain’s Bounce Gives Him 5-Point Lead
Leads Obama 49%-44% in first results conducted fully after GOP convention
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain leads Barack Obama, 49% to 44%, in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results
These results are based on Sept. 5-7 interviewing, and are the first in which all interviews were conducted following the completion of the GOP convention. Immediately prior to the convention's Sept. 1 start, Aug. 29-31 interviewing showed McCain with 43% support among registered voters, compared with 49% today. Thus, Gallup credits McCain with a six-point convention bounce.That is slightly better than Barack Obama's four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points.
Here is how the candidates' convention bounces compare with prior presidential candidates.
The net effect of the GOP convention bounce is that McCain has moved from a trailing position as the convention was getting underway (49% Obama, 43% McCain) to a leading position (49% McCain, 44% Obama).
McCain's current 49% share of the vote is his best performance in Gallup tracking to date. His five-point lead is his best since early May, when he led Obama by six points (48% to 42%). Obama has led throughout much of the campaign, and has led nearly all of the time since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
McCain has led Obama in each of the three individual nights' data comprising today's three-day rolling average, but the real question is whether he can sustain the lead as voter excitement around the convention fades. Since 1964, the first election year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces, there have been only two examples in which one candidate consistently trailed until the time of his party's convention, but took the lead after and never relinquished it. Those occurred in 1988 for the elder George Bush and 1992 for Bill Clinton.
But there are also examples where a consistently trailing candidate took the lead after his party's convention, but later relinquished it -- Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Al Gore in 2000.
The most common pattern has been for one candidate to consistently lead prior to both conventions, and to maintain a lead during the convention period, even if his opponent got a convention bounce.
There is potential for further movement in the campaign, most notably with three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate scheduled for late September through mid-October, in addition to the intensive day-to-day campaigning between now and Election Day. -- Jeff Jones
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Sept. 5-7, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,733 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, September 08, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).
McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women. Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs and all the data we collect--not just the portion we make public. Premium Members can also get an advance look at tracking poll results via the Daily Snapshot each morning.
Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that they are certain they will cast their ballot for McCain and will not change their mind before November. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about Obama. Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends).
Throughout Election 2008, opinions have always been stronger about Obama than McCain. However, that gap is not as wide as it used to be. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are now 29% Very Favorable and 20% Very Unfavorable.
1 comment:
REPEAT THE FOLLOWING:
If you're a minority and you're selected for a job over more qualified candidates you're a "token hire." If you're a conservative and you're selected for a job over more qualified candidates you're a "game changer."
If you live in an Urban area and you get a girl pregnant you're a "baby daddy." If you're the same in Alaska you're a "teen father." (Actually, according to your own MySpace page you're an F'n redneck that don't want any kids, but that's too long a phrase for the evil liberal media to take out of context and flog morning noon and night).
Black teen pregnancies? A "crisis" in black America. White teen pregnancies? A "blessed event."
If you grow up in Hawaii you're "exotic." Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, you're the quintessential "American story."
Similarly, if you name you kid Barack you're "unpatriotic." Name your kid Track, you're "colorful."
If you're a Democrat and you make a VP pick without fully vetting the individual you're "reckless." A Republican who doesn't fully vet is a "maverick."
If you say that for the "first time in my adult lifetime I'm really proud of my country" it makes you "unfit" to be First Lady. If you are a registered member of a fringe political group that advocates secession that makes you "First Dude."
A DUI from twenty years ago is "old news." A speech given without proper citation from twenty years ago is "relevant information."
And, finally, if you're a man and you decide to run for office despite your wife's recurrence of cancer you're a "questionable spouse." If you're a woman and you decide to run for office despite having five kids including a newborn... Well, we don't know what that is 'cause THAT'S NOT A FAIR QUESTION TO ASK.
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