Tuesday, August 19, 2008

OBAMA TEACHES US: HOW TO LOSE A CONVENTION By DICK MORRIS


DICK MORRIS' '08 PLAY-BY-PLAY


Volume 1, #32

August 18, 2008




OBAMA TEACHES US: HOW TO LOSE A CONVENTION


For the first time in recent memory, the Democratic and Republican conventions will be held on consecutive weeks. The Democratic gathering, in Denver, will begin on Monday, August 25 and run through Thursday, August 29. The Republican conclave, in Minneapolis-St. Paul, will start three days later on Monday, September 1 and run through Thursday, September 4.


Obama is certain to have a big bounce in the polls after his acceptance speech outdoors to 75,000 spectators Thursday, August 29th. But how will the bump stand up during the Republican convention? It is unexplored territory.


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CAN EVENTS DERAIL OBAMA?


Asked what could get in the way of his political plans, former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan answered “events, dear boy, events.”


The Russian invasion of Georgia shows how quickly events, particularly abroad, can change domestic political calculations. While American voters are determined to cast their ballots based on domestic issues like the economy, energy, and health care, events may blow them off course and lead to an election based on international problems.


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AS ISRAEL GOES, SO GOES THE UNITED STATES?


Facing a potential existential threat in Iran’s nuclear program, Israeli politicians are hotly debating the nature of the Jewish State’s response.


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AND FOR VICE PRESIDENT?


Obama’s goal in choosing a vice president seems to be to avoid controversy. Picking an Evan Bayh or a Tim Kaine would be a safe choice. (Although some will worry about Bayh’s close ties to Mark Penn and others will be concerned about Kaine’s lack of experience and the absence of any national security credentials).


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