Why Obama Can Lose - By Jude Kean - Savage Politics

July 15th, 2008


Looking at all the polling data available on Obama versus McCain on Real Clear Politics website, 147 polls in all since November 2007, a very interesting pattern emerges. I pulled the data provided at that site into a spreadsheet, and within a few minutes, saw some things I did not expect to see.

When all the polls are averaged, Obama averages 46%. When you look at February to present, to analyze what happened when he really was gaining momentum, Obama averages 46%. And when you just look at the polls from June 3rd forward, when Obama ‘cinched’ the nomination, Obama averages 47% of the vote. This pattern is much more flat that I would have anticipated, and indicates that Obama is having a very difficult time in getting more than 50% of the vote. In fact, only 3 of the 147, or less than 2% of the polls showed him with over 50% of the respondents favoring him.

I ran the same method of analysis on McCain’s numbers. McCain was also trending a surprising static average. In all 147 polls, McCain averaged 43% of the respondents aligning themselves with him. From February forward, that number remained 43%. And from June 3rd to now, when the presumptive Democratic nominee should presumably have been getting a bounce, McCain’s number only fell by 1%.

So
Barack Obama’s total bounce from his nomination, averaging all polls from June 3rd forward, was a 2% point gain, with Obama gaining 1% and McCain losing 1%.
All these numbers still show Obama ahead, so you may be wondering by now why the article is titled “Why Obama can Lose.” The answer lies in examining the current voting pool, and what opportunities are left for either candidate to gain votes. To that end, there are 4 groups that can be described as critical to putting either candidate into a majority, and looking at these 4 groups, one can see definite room for McCain support to grow, and little evidence that the same can happen for Obama.

1. Undecideds - taking an average of the polls since June 3rd, only 88% expressed a preference for Obama or McCain, leaving 12% having chosen neither at this time. According to an analysis piece in Newsweek describing the results of the new Newsweek poll, “85 percent of undecided voters are non-Hispanic whites and only 22 percent of those undecideds have a four-year college degree.” That demographic could be a challenge for Obama to win over.

2. Independents - That same Newsweek poll showed Obama lost 14 points in independent voters since June while McCain gained 5 points with independents and an additional 5 points with Republicans.

3. PUMA Democrats and the Just Say No Deal coalition - This group of Hillary Clinton supporters are outraged at the injustice of the DNC and the May 31 RBC decisions on Florida and Michigan that ensured that Barack Obama would wind up with more delegates, effectively giving him the nomination. This coalition represents a significant percentage of Hillary’s famed 18 million, and cannot be counted on to fall in line and vote for Obama in November.

4. Barack’s base on the left - Probably the most detrimental to Barack Obama right now is Barack Obama himself. For the same reason that Obama is losing support from Independents, he is also seeing a fracturing of enthusiastic support within his base, due to his recent and substantive shifts in policy, including but not limited to:

* Opting out of public financing of campaign even though he pledged to do so in order to keep big money interests out of the campaign. MSM is just beginning to report that the majority of Barack’s donations have come from the likes of
Goldman Sachs, Google, Time Warner and GE.


* Announcing that he will be revising his policies on plans for withdrawal in Iraq after running a campaign pledging that he will get the troops out in 16 months, period.


* Agreeing with the conservative minority on the SCOTUS decision to not apply the death penalty in cases of child rape where no loss of life occurs. Obama the progressive told his followers that he would impose the death penalty here.


* Agreeing with the majority in the SCOTUS decision involving the constitutionality of hand gun bans in DC. This reversal from the man from Chicago, where another hand gun ban is in place. This from a candidate who has always positioned himself as a gun control advocate.


* Pledging to expand President Bush’s faith based initiatives.


* And the real stinger for many: Voting for the revised FISA bill that contains immunity for the telecom community after vowing to filibuster it.

That’s quite a list, and it’s not even complete. Obama has talked out of both sides of his mouth on trade agreements, abortion, gay marriage, and just about any other issue that requires one to take a stand.

It is that constituency - those who thought they had found their progressive hero, who feel betrayed. While looking at him most of the year as their Messiah, many among his followers are now feeling as though he has become Judas, right before their eyes.

Should he lose any significant proportion of these true believers, he will most definitely lose the election. And there are a lot of indications that this group is becoming very disillusioned. The less passion felt, particularly by younger voters, the less likely they will get out of their own way to get to the polls come November. This is, in my estimation, the most ominous sign of all for Barack.

The election is still months away and lots can happen along the trail. But if I was Barack Obama, I wouldn’t be buying any champagne yet.

©2008 Jude Kean, of SAVAGEPOLITICS.com. All Rights Reserved.