Thursday, May 22, 2008

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows John McCain earning 46% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 42%. This is the first time in nearly three weeks that either candidate has enjoyed a four-point advantage (see recent daily results).

McCain’s edge can be traced directly to the fact that just 66% of Democrats say they will vote for Obama at this time. Twenty-three percent (23%) of all Democrats say that if the election were held today, they’d vote for McCain. Another 11% would opt for “some other candidate” or remain undecided. McCain, who wrapped up the GOP nomination more than two months ago, attracts 79% of Republican votes and holds a modest five point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

It is likely that Obama’s numbers will improve when he is formally recognized as the Democratic nominee. How much they will improve depends upon how the end game is handled. How will the Michigan and Florida delegates be included at the Democratic Convention in August? How will Hillary Clinton exit the race? One key date is a week from Saturday, May 31, when the Democrats’ Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to try and resolve the Michigan/Florida issue.
Beyond that, of course, is the question of whether Hillary Clinton wants to run for Vice-President. Rasmussen Reports noted some time ago that
if Clinton wants the number two slot on the ticket, Obama will have no choice but to accept her. In the end, regardless of the specifics, the key for Obama will be to make Clinton supporters believe that their candidate was treated fairly and with respect. If he can accomplish that goal, his support among Democrats will dramatically improve.

Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. New state polling will be released at noon Eastern today for Nevada and California (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

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