Rarely have the stars aligned so squarely against the party in power in elections for the White House as it has for Republicans, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll bears out. Ultimately, voters choose a person for president, not a party, and Sen. John McCain seems to give Republicans a fighting chance.
Measures of the candidates' appeal in the poll help explain why Democrats nationally are deadlocked between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. While Sen. Clinton has an edge with voters on experience and leadership, Sen. Obama rates higher than ever on traits such as likability that reflect a greater connection with voters.
"The compass points due north for the Democrats as the party of change," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who, with Republican Bill McInturff, conducts the Journal/NBC surveys. "But for each of the three presidential hopefuls, the compass settings are much less definitive."
A couple findings in the new poll capture how conflicted Americans are. By a 13-point margin, 50% to 37%, registered voters say they would prefer a Democrat to be elected president. When asked to choose specifically between Arizona Sen. McCain and either Democrat, the results in each case are a statistical tie. (Poll results)
Illinois Sen. Obama edges Sen. McCain by 47% to 44%, while Sen. Clinton, of New York, beats the Republican by a near-identical 47% to 45%. The poll, which surveyed 1,012 registered voters March 7-10, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Chief among the strengths of the Republican nominee-in-waiting is his experience with national-security issues, as a naval aviator and longtime senator. "Americans can visualize John McCain behind the desk in the Oval Office," said Mr. Hart. "The difficulty is where his policies are, and is he going to take the country where it wants to head."
Voters gave Sen. McCain the lowest marks on whether he shared their positions on issues (31% said he does), for being inspirational (22%) and for being likely to produce change in Washington (20%). Yet Sen. McCain evokes positive responses among voters generally -- by 47% to 27% they say they have a favorable view of him, with the rest mostly neutral. Those with positive feelings include seven out of 10 conservative voters who otherwise say they are unhappy with Sen. McCain as the nominee. Fewer than half of Democrats have unfavorable views.
Yet plenty in the poll underscores the hurdles ahead for Sen. McCain.
In an election in which most voters say they seek change, one in five says he could deliver it. Likewise, the senator who first emerged nationally as George W. Bush's chief nemesis in the 2000 campaign now represents to many voters a continuation of the unpopular president's policies -- especially toward the war in Iraq. Three-quarters of voters say they want the next president to govern differently from Mr. Bush, the poll shows, yet just as many say Sen. McCain would "closely" follow the Bush program.
Further evidence that Mr. Bush will be a drag: Voters by two-to one disapprove of his job performance generally, and his handling of the economy and Iraq, as they have for the past two years. The economy, not the war, remains the top issue for voters. More Americans say they are worse off than four years ago, compared with those who say they're better off; the margin is the worst in Journal/NBC surveys since 1992 -- before Mr. Bush's father lost re-election.
By 56% to 30%, voters say the economy and health-care issues -- where they favor Democrats -- are more important in deciding who should be president than terrorism and social issues -- areas where Republicans are stronger. That is roughly the reverse of voters' priorities right before Mr. Bush's 2004 re-election.
At the five-year anniversary of the Iraq war, the conflict remains as unpopular as ever, despite the military progress of Mr. Bush's troop buildup of the past year -- of which Sen. McCain was the chief promoter. A majority still wants to start withdrawing troops in 2009 rather than stay indefinitely until Iraq is stable, as Sen. McCain suggests.
The toll on Republicans is reflected in voters' party identification. By 12 points, 47% to 35%, more voters say they are Democrats or lean that way; four years ago, the parties were roughly even. Republicans' slippage is mostly among those 18 to 34 years old. While strategists typically give short shrift to younger Americans because many don't vote, Mr. McInturff says their excitement this year, especially on the Democrats' side, could make 2008 "one of the first general-election cycles where they become a very important subgroup." That could hurt 71-year-old Sen. McCain.
In the Democrats' marathon, Sen. Clinton leads Sen. Obama nationally among Democratic voters by just 47% to 43%. That is down from her 16-point, 53% to 37% lead in the previous Journal/NBC poll in January -- before Sen. Obama's February winning streak that she finally snapped with candidacy-saving victories March 4 in Ohio and Texas.
While voters say, though by a statistically insignificant margin, that either Democrat could beat Sen. McCain, Democratic voters by 10 points -- 48% to 38% -- say Sen. Obama would have the better chance than Sen. Clinton.
In the poll's 10 measures of voters' attitudes toward the candidates, Sen. Obama's big advantage on personal traits and hers on political attributes "explains why this race is still so close," Mr. McInturff said. Sen. Clinton scores highest for knowledge and experience, while that question elicits Sen. Obama's lowest rating. Conversely, his best score comes on the question where she rates worst-for "being easy-going and likable."
Despite Sen. Clinton's heightened attacks on Sen. Obama's readiness to be president, the percentage of Democrats who say he'd be a good commander in chief surged 16 points, to 59%, from January's poll. She is so-rated by 64%. While Sen. Clinton's scores stayed about the same from January's poll, Sen. Obama also rose 20 points, to 72% among Democrats, on ability to bring change; that compares with her 58%. He was up 17 points, to 73%, on being inspirational -- 21 points higher than his rival.
Former President Bill Clinton clearly has become something of a liability for his wife, the poll suggests. More voters have a negative view of him than a positive one for the first time in five years, a period in which he'd burnished a global reputation for good works. Among Democrats, his criticisms of Sen. Obama on the campaign trail have cost Mr. Clinton some of his popularity among African-Americans and Obama supporters.
Measures of the candidates' appeal in the poll help explain why Democrats nationally are deadlocked between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. While Sen. Clinton has an edge with voters on experience and leadership, Sen. Obama rates higher than ever on traits such as likability that reflect a greater connection with voters.
"The compass points due north for the Democrats as the party of change," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who, with Republican Bill McInturff, conducts the Journal/NBC surveys. "But for each of the three presidential hopefuls, the compass settings are much less definitive."
A couple findings in the new poll capture how conflicted Americans are. By a 13-point margin, 50% to 37%, registered voters say they would prefer a Democrat to be elected president. When asked to choose specifically between Arizona Sen. McCain and either Democrat, the results in each case are a statistical tie. (Poll results)
Illinois Sen. Obama edges Sen. McCain by 47% to 44%, while Sen. Clinton, of New York, beats the Republican by a near-identical 47% to 45%. The poll, which surveyed 1,012 registered voters March 7-10, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Chief among the strengths of the Republican nominee-in-waiting is his experience with national-security issues, as a naval aviator and longtime senator. "Americans can visualize John McCain behind the desk in the Oval Office," said Mr. Hart. "The difficulty is where his policies are, and is he going to take the country where it wants to head."
Of 10 attributes measured in the poll, Sen. McCain scored highest
for "being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency."
Nearly two-thirds of voters agreed -- up 12 points from December, when both
parties' nominating races were getting under way. His next-highest ratings, from
61%, were for strong leadership and for readiness to be commander in
chief.
Voters gave Sen. McCain the lowest marks on whether he shared their positions on issues (31% said he does), for being inspirational (22%) and for being likely to produce change in Washington (20%). Yet Sen. McCain evokes positive responses among voters generally -- by 47% to 27% they say they have a favorable view of him, with the rest mostly neutral. Those with positive feelings include seven out of 10 conservative voters who otherwise say they are unhappy with Sen. McCain as the nominee. Fewer than half of Democrats have unfavorable views.
In the first Journal/NBC poll since Sen. McCain
clinched the nomination, a 52% majority of Republicans say they would have
preferred another nominee -- a gauge of how much bridge-building the reputed
party maverick must do to unite his party. But both pollsters caution against
reading too much into that finding. Other findings show even dissatisfied
Republicans would vote overwhelmingly for Sen. McCain against either Democrat.
Yet plenty in the poll underscores the hurdles ahead for Sen. McCain.
In an election in which most voters say they seek change, one in five says he could deliver it. Likewise, the senator who first emerged nationally as George W. Bush's chief nemesis in the 2000 campaign now represents to many voters a continuation of the unpopular president's policies -- especially toward the war in Iraq. Three-quarters of voters say they want the next president to govern differently from Mr. Bush, the poll shows, yet just as many say Sen. McCain would "closely" follow the Bush program.
Further evidence that Mr. Bush will be a drag: Voters by two-to one disapprove of his job performance generally, and his handling of the economy and Iraq, as they have for the past two years. The economy, not the war, remains the top issue for voters. More Americans say they are worse off than four years ago, compared with those who say they're better off; the margin is the worst in Journal/NBC surveys since 1992 -- before Mr. Bush's father lost re-election.
By 56% to 30%, voters say the economy and health-care issues -- where they favor Democrats -- are more important in deciding who should be president than terrorism and social issues -- areas where Republicans are stronger. That is roughly the reverse of voters' priorities right before Mr. Bush's 2004 re-election.
At the five-year anniversary of the Iraq war, the conflict remains as unpopular as ever, despite the military progress of Mr. Bush's troop buildup of the past year -- of which Sen. McCain was the chief promoter. A majority still wants to start withdrawing troops in 2009 rather than stay indefinitely until Iraq is stable, as Sen. McCain suggests.
The toll on Republicans is reflected in voters' party identification. By 12 points, 47% to 35%, more voters say they are Democrats or lean that way; four years ago, the parties were roughly even. Republicans' slippage is mostly among those 18 to 34 years old. While strategists typically give short shrift to younger Americans because many don't vote, Mr. McInturff says their excitement this year, especially on the Democrats' side, could make 2008 "one of the first general-election cycles where they become a very important subgroup." That could hurt 71-year-old Sen. McCain.
In the Democrats' marathon, Sen. Clinton leads Sen. Obama nationally among Democratic voters by just 47% to 43%. That is down from her 16-point, 53% to 37% lead in the previous Journal/NBC poll in January -- before Sen. Obama's February winning streak that she finally snapped with candidacy-saving victories March 4 in Ohio and Texas.
While voters say, though by a statistically insignificant margin, that either Democrat could beat Sen. McCain, Democratic voters by 10 points -- 48% to 38% -- say Sen. Obama would have the better chance than Sen. Clinton.
In the poll's 10 measures of voters' attitudes toward the candidates, Sen. Obama's big advantage on personal traits and hers on political attributes "explains why this race is still so close," Mr. McInturff said. Sen. Clinton scores highest for knowledge and experience, while that question elicits Sen. Obama's lowest rating. Conversely, his best score comes on the question where she rates worst-for "being easy-going and likable."
Despite Sen. Clinton's heightened attacks on Sen. Obama's readiness to be president, the percentage of Democrats who say he'd be a good commander in chief surged 16 points, to 59%, from January's poll. She is so-rated by 64%. While Sen. Clinton's scores stayed about the same from January's poll, Sen. Obama also rose 20 points, to 72% among Democrats, on ability to bring change; that compares with her 58%. He was up 17 points, to 73%, on being inspirational -- 21 points higher than his rival.
Former President Bill Clinton clearly has become something of a liability for his wife, the poll suggests. More voters have a negative view of him than a positive one for the first time in five years, a period in which he'd burnished a global reputation for good works. Among Democrats, his criticisms of Sen. Obama on the campaign trail have cost Mr. Clinton some of his popularity among African-Americans and Obama supporters.
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