My Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday Primary Picks By Chris Weigant

Republicans

Republicans are voting in the following 21 states today:

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia

Candidate-by-candidate, here's how I think they're going to do:

Mike Huckabee

Mike Huckabee easily wins his home state of Arkansas. Arkansas has only sent one person to the White House before, and they'd love to make it two "from Hope, Arkansas." So he wins handily here.

Unfortunately, that's about where the good news stops for Huckabee. He's got a decent shot in four or five other states, mostly due to high populations of evangelical voters. I'm predicting they turn out for him in two of these -- Missouri and Tennessee.

But winning three states isn't going to be good enough for Huckabee to continue campaigning, so watch for him to drop out of the race soon after the results are in. Of course, he may be back later on the campaign trail, as a possible Vice President on McCain's ticket.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney is also going to have a disappointing night. He will prove that he commands support from states with heavy Mormon populations, but not so much elsewhere. Of course, he'll win his home state of Massachusetts with a healthy margin. I'm also predicting (on nothing more than McCain's resistance to ANWR drilling) that he'll pick up Alaska.

But other than those two, Mitt will only win in Colorado, Montana, and Utah. He's going to win BIG in Utah. Very big. But he's going to end the night with nothing more than five states to show for his SDTT efforts. The pressure on him to drop out and give McCain a clear field will be enormous from this point on, but my guess is that he may hang around a bit longer than Huckabee.

John McCain

John McCain will emerge from SDTT as the
Republican nominee-apparent. He will win a lucky 13 states, and his dominance of
the race will be impossible to deny. This will cause Rush Limbaugh's head to
explode, and Ann Coulter to run screaming for the lunatic asylum she belongs
in.

McCain will win his home state of Arizona without problem. He will closely beat Romney in California and Delaware. He will edge out Huckabee in Alabama and Oklahoma. In the only true three-way close race of the night, he will barely win against Romney and Huckabee in Georgia. But there won't be much excitement from the GOP Tuesday night, as McCain will win large margins in Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, and West Virginia.

Democrats better get used to the idea of running
against McCain in the fall, because although he probably won't have the "winning
number" of delegates until some later primary, John McCain is going to be the
Republican candidate this year.