Monday, February 04, 2008

How CA GOP Delegates will be won on Super Tuesday




The Field Poll, the ONLY Daily Tracking Polling done in the CA Primary races,

shows Sen. John McCain UP by 8% over Willard Romney!











California is the biggest prize on the delegate map during next Tuesday's primaries and caucuses, when voters in more than 20 states will head to the polls.
But the process by which Democrats and Republicans collect delegates here is anything but simple.



For starters, the Democrats and Republicans have different systems of picking delegates.
For Republicans, there are 170 delegates at stake next Tuesday.



Three delegates will be distributed to the candidate who gets the most votes in each of California’s 53 congressional districts. That adds up to 159 delegates.



The winner of the statewide vote gets another 11 delegates.



The state's final three delegates – state party Chairman Ron Nehring, national committeewoman Barbara Alby and national committeeman Tim Morgan – go to the GOP summer convention uncommitted, regardless of Tuesday's results.



The magic number for the GOP candidates to win the nomination is 1,191 delegates. Sweeping California coud bring a candidate more than 10 percent of the way there.



For Democrats, there are 370 delegates on the line Tuesday. The magic number to win the nomination: 2,025.



Of those, 241 are allotted by the state's 53 congressional districts. The candidates will divide those delegates (which range from three to six delegates per district) proportionally, according to the results in each district.



As long as a candidate receives at least 15 percent of a district’s vote, he or she is guaranteed one delegate.



Another 129 delegates will be divided proportionally, according to the statewide vote.
That divided system is likely to benefit Sen. Barack Obama, who polls have shown trailing Sen. Hillary Clinton by double digits in the state.



For instance, if Obama wins 40 percent of the vote everywhere in the state, he would still collect approximately 148 delegates (compared to 222 for Clinton).



While the Republicans give California only three uncommitted delegates, Democrats give the state 71 slots (occupied primarily by members of Congress, the U.S. Senate, party lines and the like).

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