The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney by five percentage points. It’s McCain 31% Romney 26%. The survey was conducted Friday night, the night following the Iowa caucuses. As noted yesterday on Rasmussen Reports, McCain was one of the big winners on Thursday in Iowa. The current poll is a reversal from a pre-Christmas survey when Romney had a slight advantage.
Ron Paul earns 14% of the vote and Mike Huckabee gets 11% as the only other candidates in double digits. Rudy Giuliani attracts 8% of the vote, Fred Thompson 5%, some other candidate 2%, and 3% are not sure.
McCain and Romney are tied among Republicans likely to vote in the Primary but McCain has an advantage among Independent voters. Independents are still more likely to participate in the Democratic Primary. Still, the survey suggests that 32% of voters in the GOP Primary will be unaffiliated with either major party.
The Republican race remains fluid as nearly a third of GOP voters say they could still change their mind. Sixty-four percent (64%) of McCain’s voters say they are “certain” they will vote for him. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Romney supporters are that certain along with 83% of Ron Paul voters and 66% for Mike Huckabee.
New polling data for the New Hampshire Democratic Primary will be released at 10:30 Eastern today.
Nationally, in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Rasmussen Markets data, there is no clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
In New Hampshire, McCain is now seen as the most electable Republican. Seventy-six percent (76%) of GOP voters say the Arizona Senator is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Sixty-eight percent (68%) have that confidence in Romney and 60% say the same of Rudy Giuliani. Just 42% believe Huckabee would be even somewhat likely to win; 25% hold that view of Thompson, and 18% believe Paul would have a chance.
Among New Hampshire’s Likely Republican Primary Voters, National Security Issues are deemed Very Important by 78%. Immigration is seen as Very Important by 65%, government ethics and corruption by 64%, Iraq by 64%. Sixty-one percent (59%) say the economy is Very Important in determining how they will vote.
McCain, Romney, and Giuliani are the only Republican candidates viewed favorably by even a plurality of GOP voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 71% and unfavorably by 27%. Romney and Giuliani are each seen favorably by 64%. Romney earns unfavorable assessments from 33%, Giuliani from 35%.
Ratings for all three men are down slightly since our previous survey.
Huckabee is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50%. Thompson’s numbers are 45% favorable and 49% unfavorable. His numbers are now similar to Ron Paul’s—42% have a favorable opinion of the Texas Congressman while 53% voice an unfavorable opinion.
Rasmussen Markets data at 9:00 a.m. on Saturday morning suggest that John McCain has a 73% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is given a 24% chance of winning
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