Buoyed by new poll numbers in New Hampshire that show him at the verge of victory, Sen. John McCain will take to the television airwaves in Michigan on Friday as he seeks to build his own path to the Republican presidential nomination.
McCain communications director Jill Hazelbaker confirmed the ad buy when reached by The Fix this afternoon but did not offer details of the media markets in which it will run. (We hear Grand Rapids and Traverse City at the moment.) "We have an early-state strategy and Michigan has always been an important state in our path to victory," she explained.
Michigan's Republican primary will be held on Jan. 15, sandwiched between primaries in New Hampshire on Jan. 8 and South Carolina on Jan. 19. McCain senior strategists see Michigan as a potential momentum-builder for his candidacy as it heads to South Carolina where the senator's 2000 bid ended for all intents and purposes.
Remember that Michigan voters -- like their compatriots in New Hampshire -- have already shown their affinity for McCain, having given him a victory over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the state's 2000 primary. In that race, Bush had the support of the majority of the state's political establishment including then-Gov. John Engler (Mich.). But, as in New Hampshire, McCain attracted a large number of independent voters and just enough Republicans to knock off Bush
Polling in the state of late has shown former Gov. Mitt Romney leading with McCain, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani all in low double digits. Romney is the only candidate who has had any steady course of advertising in Michigan; he also has long ties to the state as he was born there and his father served as its governor.
While Romney has real strength in Michigan, if he comes up short in Iowa and New Hampshire, his support could well erode in the days before Michigan votes. If, on the other hand, McCain can win New Hampshire, he would immediately become the focus of the media coverage in the days following the primary. (There's nothing the media likes so much as a comeback story.)
His decision to spend part of his limited resources in Michigan is a sign that McCain and his strategists believe a path to the nomination requires victories in New Hampshire and Michigan followed by a battle with either Romney or Huckabee in South Carolina.
It's a longshot but far more probable today than almost anyone -- The Fix included -- would have believed over the summer when McCain's campaign imploded.
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