The Money War

By Jonathan Tallman

Well, the second quarter has ended for 2007, and some of the campaign totals are in. The Democratic leader in donations for the primary is none other then Senator Barack Obama. Senator Obama brought in $31 million to Senator Hillary Clinton's $21 million. Some are now saying that it is a good sign that Obama will go on to win the nomination. However, I would tone it down a little. One quarter of solid fundraising eight months out from the primary does not equate to victory come "Super Tuesday" in February.

Over all this commotion on how Obama is going to rise to the top because of this quarter, I would point out a governor that even Karl Rove predicted would be the Democratic candidate in 2004. His name: Howard Dean. Dean had a great second quarter, raking in an astounding $7.5 million in fundraising totals, and people started talking about Howard Dean, the nominee that would take on President Bush in November. More importantly, it was said that Dean had the support of the average American, just as they are saying now about Obama, because they had come from Deanites, individuals who donated to the campaign. Before we all knew it, Dean lost to Senator John Kerry, 32% of the vote, to Dean's third place finish with 18% of the vote in the Iowa Caucus. Then, Kerry went on to defeat Dean in the New Hampshire Primary. From there, it was all over for Dean. The record-setting fundraiser who just weeks earlier was said to be the next Democratic nominee, lost to a once underfunded Senator from Massachusetts who went on to win the nomination.

Here is where things get interesting. Senator John McCain had a dismal $11 million in donations for the second quarter. Now, politicos throughout the country are beginning to talk about Senator McCain being out of the race. Going back just four years ago, a democratic primary contender had the same problem. This candidate only got 16% of the vote on MoveOn's highly symbolic Democratic internet vote. The candidate slipped into the shadows of Howard Dean, the expected nominee. Going into the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, it appeared Howard Dean was going to sweep. Then, unexpectedly, Senator John Kerry, the eventual nominee, went on to win both the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire. Once in financial troubles and a fledgling campaign, he went on to take on President Bush.

What political pundits and commentator fail to realize is that money doesn't always win races. 2004 proved this. Senator McCain should most certainly not be happy with his showing in this quarter's fundraising, but just the same, he has two more full quarters before the first primary. That, on top of the immigration debate being brought to an end late last week, could mean good news for the McCain camp. Senator Obama, on the other hand, should take note on the past. Obama has proved to be somewhat of a disappointment since he announced, never truly staying ahead of Senator Clinton in the polls. This may just be another disappointment; lots of money doesn't change Obama's lack of experience. The next quarter may bring new surprises or reawaken old ones, one thing is for sure, there is more to a presidential campaign than money, and the first candidate to forget that, will be the first to announce their departure from the race.