2008 Presidential Race: Iraq may be the Cornerstone of the Republican comeback - from ISRIA

I received this from ISRIA after my appearance on BBC's Have Your Say on June 5:

An exclusive and special report brought to you by ISRIA

1,455 words analysis by Charles Rault. The views expressed in the analysis do not necessarily reflect those of ISRIA which does not advocate any specific opinion.

Barack Obama will be the democratic candidate for the 2008 presidential elections. He calls for change (Yes, we can) and his perpetual stance against the war in Iraq gives him some credibility over the 'mistakes' those who voted that war made years ago (at least from a democratic viewpoint). Also, the fact that McCain may become the oldest US president ever is another challenge the Republicans will have to tackle by pleading two main arguments: results and experience.

Experience because John McCain has been a US Senator for decades and is known and respected throughout the world as someone with a deep knowledge of international issues despite his (sometimes) too all-American viewpoint. Barack Obama is known throughout the world as the one who defeated Hillary Clinton, the New York Senator that everyone including prestigious publications (those very ones who now support Obama) predicted she would be the next President of the United States for sure. The fact that with such a short experience Obama managed to defeat the former First Lady and her high-skilled team has something extraordinary in the minds of at least half of the Americans and of a huge majority of the non-American public; especially in Europe. Actually, talking about the time one spent as a Senator or else doesn't mean much. Indeed, the Republicans should not base their strategy on the lack of experience according to the duration of Obama's national responsibilities till now. Experience is not a matter of time; anyway not only a matter of time. Only the quality and the results that can be analyzed is a better and more appropriate definition of experience. That is something the Republicans plan not to miss when they talk about the situation in Iraq.

According to the information we collected here at

ISRIA, we found out that various reports claiming the situation is getting better in Iraq have been issued on a large number of websites, groups and mailing-lists. Such reports contradict with the idea that the war in Iraq has been a “war for nothing” and that Iraq turned into an everyday nightmare both for the Iraqi people and for America which would not know how to get rid of the problem; in an “elegant” way. “Lies. President Bush lied for oil and he led us (Americans) into a war that we did wage and that is getting out of control. America must withdraw its troops” a democratic supporter said on a private newsgroup. If you analyze the place the Iraqi conflict is going to take in the next presidential elections, you will see that Europe plays an important role, at least indirect. Obama's supporters consider that the reasons for the war in Iraq have been either erroneous or, at best, too optimistic as for the outcome. Yes the outcome has been terrible for many; principally the Iraqi people. That is not our role as analysts to tell whether the war in Iraq was necessary or not; in any case it is too late. Today this war continues and America must deal with what is happening now rather than focusing on what led to it; except for short-sighted politician purpose that would not do America, Iraq and the Mideast any good.
This focus on what led to the war has spread across America as the debate over the war in Iraq grew when Obama and Clinton were still running for the democratic candidacy. Many of their supporters share the view that the war in Iraq has brought more problems than solutions. Through a chronological and financial analysis, this is true. From a counter-terrorist perspective, it dramatically increased the justifications and the potential recruits for terrorist networks. Yet, it is possible to say the war in Iraq is a magnet that draws the terrorists to Iraq instead of Europe and America. However everyone keeps in mind that the people fighting against US-led coalition's troops in Iraq can come back to Europe with deadly objectives. From a perspective that takes into account what is actually happening on the ground, the situation seems not so desperate. Yes, it is improving, whatever one's opinion may be as for why the United States attacked Iraq. The Surge which Republican candidate John McCain was the most favorable advocate seems successful so far. Many places in Iraq would be now less dangerous than downtown Detroit some pro-Republican reports read. The number of US casualties in Iraq in May 2008 has been lower to the rate of homicides in many US cities. Such reports don't talk about the number of Iraqi civilian casualties which is far higher; therefore making these reports a little flawed. A little because one should understand how sensitive the context of Iraq is: a multi-sectarian environment in which there are more automatic war weapons than people. That is definitely not the environment of everyday life in America and that is why the current results brought by the Surge are quite impressive.

Along with the improvements in Iraq, the Republicans will plead,
without a direct reference to George W. Bush, that no terrorist attack took
place on the US soil since 9/11. “Produce one person who believed, on Sept. 12, 2001, that there would not be another attack for seven years” another pro-Republican report asked.

There have been attempts for sure, but they have all been thwarted. “Contrary to (old) Europe” a not-very-keen-on-Europe Republican would add. The Baas regime has been overthrown and Saddam Hussein is now dead. America killed thousands of terrorists in Iraq and succeeded in creating a Sunni alliance (Anbar Awakening) of former insurgents who took arms against their former friend: Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). The parallel that can be drawn with Europe is clear: the continent is a great supporter of Barack Obama. Most of the Europeans ignored his very existence weeks ago; they mostly don't even know his ideas and program. “He will renew the 'picture' of America” one German said in a TV report. Our information shows the European support for Obama results more from an anti-Bush stance. It is no question to say whether the Europeans are right or not. What one must notice is that the Republicans are likely to use this European infatuation for Obama as they did with John Kerry in 2004 in a shorter extent than what could happen till next November. Yet, the Republicans should take care of showing they can be friends with Europe given the growing will of America to take up with their allies again. What strikes the most is the similarity between how the Europeans see the war in Iraq and how Obama's supporters see it too: not completely exact if not bluntly biased (for some of them) when it comes to the progress made for months.

To sum up, the democrats may focus on what happened before the war the same way as the Europeans do whereas the Republicans would choose strategically to concentrate on what to do now; this way taking an advantage in a pro-active thinking that will prove essential, certainly late in the day. Whatever may be the reasons that led to the war in Iraq; the Surge will be a strong argument for McCain to show his experience and his capacity to bring solutions to the huge challenges America (and the world as well) will face.

The Republican party is likely to point out that McCain is the best one
to solve the situation in Iraq by building a solid context that would bring
peace and prosperity to Iraq even if (but they will no say it) it takes years
(if not decades) to do so. The Surge brought results and McCain supported it.
What will happen when the Surge ends?

Besides, will the Surge end (and when)? These are two questions* the Republicans will have to answer by proposing an effective strategy that will definitely differ with the way the war had been led initially and that excluded the yet so obvious guerrilla-context that emerged finally and which the (not so old) Europe warned of. Anyway, the on-line campaign has begun and in contradiction with media predictions, Republicans may use Iraq as a main element of their strategy to convince the Americans to choose John McCain as their next Commander-in-chief.

*One can add “What to do with Iran and its growing presence in Iraq?” that is another essential question. A US withdrawal from Iraq would give Iran a free hand.

Charles Rault is a security and foreign policy analyst and strategist. He heads ISRIA, an information analysis and global intelligence company.

SPECIAL THANKS TO OUR FRIENDS OVER @ ISRIA FOR SENDING THIS!