Byron York - New poll is bad, bad news for Obama, Democrats

The results of the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll are a major warning sign for Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress. On some key issues, the gains that Democrats had made on Republicans in the last couple of years have disappeared, and the GOP has begun to reassert itself. In other policy areas, traditional Democratic leads are diminishing.

The results are found in the answers to the Journal's questions about whether respondents believe the Democratic or Republican party would do a better job of handling a particular issue. In the past, Democrats have usually led in areas like health care and education, while Republicans have led in issues like national security and taxes.

During the Bush administration, Democrats made huge gains in some important Republican areas. For example, on the question of which party would do a better job in handling the federal budget deficit, Democrats held a 19-point advantage in a November 2005 Journal poll, a 25-point advantage in July 2007, and a 22-point advantage in January 2008.

Read the full story

OBAMA POPULARITY AT 48% AND DROPPING

Thursday, July 30, 2009

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 28% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12. That’s the lowest rating yet recorded for President Obama (see trends).

Forty-nine percent (49%) now say that America’s best days have come and gone. Just 38% believe they are still to come. Thirty-four percent (34%) say the country is heading in the right direction. Seventy-five percent (75%) want the Federal Reserve to be audited.

Scott’s Page, available to Premium Members, takes a look at shifting perceptions among white and black, conservative and liberal Democrats since the President’s press conference last week.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That is the lowest level of total approval yet recorded for this President. Fifty-one percent (51%) now disapprove. A plurality of voters now believe the President views American society as unfair and discriminatory.

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.

Just 23% believe health care costs will go down if health care reform is passed. Most (53%) expect prices would rise and 50% expect the quality of care would decline.

Republicans retain a slight edge on the Generic Congressional Ballot and most voters still have an unfavorable opinion of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Fifty-four percent (54%) now say interest rates will be higher in a year. That’s a 20-point jump since April.

For more measures of the President's performance, see Obama By the Numbers and recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls..

If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.

When comparing Job Approval data from different firms, it's important to keep in mind that polls of likely voters and polls of all adults will typically and consistently yield different results. In the case of President Obama, polls by all firms measuring all adults typically show significantly higher approval ratings than polls of likely voters. Polls of registered voters typically fall in the middle. Other factors are also important to consider when comparing Job Approval ratings from different polling firms.

Repeal the stimulus and apologize for the waste - Editotial from the Washington Examiner

July 30, 2009

"We acknowledge now with President Obama, that we have made mistakes," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on her recent trip to India, accepting responsibility for America's role in global warming. Clinton was obviously pointing a finger of blame at the unrepentant Bush administration. But while Obama and his surrogates have traveled the globe apologizing for what he perceives as other people's mistakes, he's shown a marked reluctance to shoulder the blame for his own misjudgments.

Obama could start by owning up to the failure of his ill-conceived stimulus package.

Five months ago, the president authorized the expenditure of nearly $800 billion - about $500 billion in direct spending and the remainder in tiny rebates for Social Security recipients and lower-income workers. Administration officials and Democratic congressmen insisted that, unlike any Republican "trickle-down" stimulus generated by supply-side tax cuts, their outlays would quickly reach the intended recipients and get the economy moving again.

As of July 17, only $67.4 billion of the money had actually reached anyone.

Meanwhile, more than 2.5 million jobs have been lost and
unemployment has risen to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent. The president can always claim that things would have been worse without the stimulus, but this is a cop-out. Unemployment, for instance, is worse than the administration said it would be without the big spending measure. Obama may not be at fault for causing the economic downturn, but his stimulus package clearly has not delivered the short-term economic spark he and his allies promised.

And very little of the stimulus money is promoting long-term growth. Reports abound of stimulus grants for questionable research and arts projects. Only $27 billion was allocated to infrastructure, and that includes many projects of doubtful value, such as the infamous turtle-tunnel in Florida. Meanwhile, with the federal government's encouragement, states are spending millions on billboards, $2,000 orange construction signs ("Project Funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act"), and pricey public relations consultants to advertise the stimulus package itself. Fully $18 million is being spent on a website that will not begin tracking the projects online until at least mid-October.

The slow pace of stimulus spending, while disappointing to the program's architects, offers the president an opportunity - if he is willing to admit his mistake. At any time, he can ask Congress to rescind the package and return the remaining $600 billion in unallocated funds to taxpayers. Not only would this help cushion the recession, it would also demonstrate that America's leader takes responsibility for what happens on his own watch.

Obama stimulus fails, will healthcare reform be any different?

Obama Fails
By J.R. Dunn, American Thinker

Over the past couple of weeks, it has become apparent even to politicians and the media that the Demented Spree Act of 2009, better known perhaps as the "Obama Stimulus", has not worked, and shows no sign of ever working.

Unemployment -- the professed reason for the stimulus in the first place -- is now at 9.5% and will break 10% within the next few months. Credit remains tight and industry is still fumbling.

It is clear that there are no shortcuts back to a steady prosperity, that this recession will be overcome in the exact way such disasters always have been -- by working our way out of it.

The $787 billion ("real money", as Everett Dirksen would have put it), already spent, being spent, and to be spent, can be considered as so much waste paper.

The interesting thing about this is the reaction of our media and political elites -- or rather, the lack of reaction. They're behaving as if flushing away three-quarters of a trillion dollars is trivial. The failure of the greatest act of financial pump-priming in history has elicited no more than a collective shrug.

Cognitive dissonance doesn't come more obtuse than this. Our great opinion leaders have stumbled over a huge pile of facts having serious bearing on O's future prospects and rather than pausing to take a look have instead gotten to their feet, brushed themselves off, and hurried away exactly as if nothing happened. The pretense appears to be that the fate of the stimulus has nothing at all to do with the rest of Obamus Maximus's policies.

Read the Rest of the Story:

Obama is beginning to reveal his true leftist colors

Who is Obama?
By Ben Stein, American Spectator

Why is President Barack Obama in such a hurry to get his socialized medicine bill passed?

Because he and his cunning circle realize some basic truths:

The American people in their unimaginable kindness and trust voted for a pig in a poke in 2008. They wanted so much to believe Barack Obama was somehow better and different from other ultra-leftists that they simply took him on faith.

They ignored his anti-white writings in his books. They ignored his quiet acceptance of hysterical anti-American diatribes by his minister, Jeremiah Wright. They ignored his refusal to explain years at a time of his life as a student.

They ignored his ultra-left record as a "community organizer," Illinois state legislator, and Senator. The American people ignored his total zero of an academic record as a student and teacher, his complete lack of scholarship when he was being touted as a scholar.

Now, the American people are starting to wake up to the truth. Barack Obama is a super likeable super leftist, not a fan of this country, way, way too cozy with the terrorist leaders in the Middle East, way beyond naive, all the way into active destruction of our interests and our allies and our future.

Read the Rest of the Story:

Your Weekly GOP Trunk - Debunking the Myths

Issue 21
July 30, 2009


Welcome to The Weekly Trunk - The Republican National Committee's weekly email update on all the latest news and political happenings. The goal of The Weekly Trunk is to inform and arm you with the facts you need to spread our conservative message and refute the misstatements of the Democrats.

This week's issue features...


Taxpayer-Funded Abortion

Read Chairman Steele's latest Op-Ed on the Democrats' scheme to promote abortion in their government-run health care experiment.(Michael Steele, "Obamacare Pushes Abortion," Human Events, 7/28/09)


Debunking the Myths

Martin Feldstein, former economic advisor to President Reagan, explains what President Obama's government-run health care experiment will really mean for Americans.(Martin Feldstein, "Obama's Plan Isn't the Answer," The Washington Post, 7/28/09)


Democrats in Disarray

The debate over government-run health care is fracturing the Democrat Party.(Mike Soraghan and Jared Allen, "Deadline Push Dropped After Health Momentum Fizzles," The Hill 7/23/09)


Misstep after Misstep

President Obama has stumbled his way through an attempt to rush government-run health care through Congress.(Kimberley A. Strassel, "How Obama Stumbled On Health Care," The Wall Street Journal, 7/24/09)


"You Can't Handle the Truth"

The Associated Press gives us the truth about President Obama's government-run health care experiment - even if the president won't.(Calvin Woodward and Jim Kuhnhenn, "FACT CHECK: Obama's Health Care Claims Adrift?" The Associated Press, 7/23/09)


What Cost Savings?

The CBO scoring dealt a second blow to the Democrat's government-run health care and their claims it would lower health care costs.(Chris Frates, "CBO Deals New Blow To Health Plan," Politico, 7/25/09)


Physicians Oppose Government-Run Health Care

Government-run health care is a direct threat to the quality of care that Americans receive, according to two past presidents of the American Medical Association.(Dr. Daniel H. Johnson Jr., Dr. Donald J. Palmisano and Dr. William G. Plested III, "Government Threat To World-Class Medicine," The Washington Times, 7/23/09)


Where are the Jobs?

House Leader John Boehner explains how the Democrats' national energy tax will destroy jobs in America.(Rep. John Boehner, "Pelosi's Tax Measure Would Kill Jobs, Raise Utility Prices," The Hill, 7/21/09)

Pay-Go Farce

House Democrats adopted legislation to make them appear committed to fiscal discipline. Don't buy it.(David S. Broder, "A 'Pay-Go' Full Of Loopholes," The Washington Post, 7/22/09)

The Incredible Shrinking President

With every passing week the president's sphere of influence gets smaller and smaller. (Jed Babbin, "The Shrinking President," Human Events, 7/27/09)


Be sure to check out Republican Conference Vice-Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers' (R-WA) new Weekly Republican Response video message here.

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SEN. JOHN McCAIN LAST NIGHT ON 'HANNITY'

Senator McCain was the Guest last night on the Fox News 'HANNITY' program. McCain spoke about the Health Care Bill:





CLICK HERE TO SEE THE VIDEO

ELDERLY LEAD OPPOSITION ON OBAMA HEALTHCARE By DICK MORRIS

Published on TheHill.com on July 28, 2009

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In 1993-94, when the Clintons tried to pass healthcare reform, the opposition to their proposals was concentrated among middle-aged voters, galvanized by the "Harry and Louise" ads. But opposition to the Obama proposals centers among the elderly, who suspect that it will mean a sharp curtailment of their medical care.

The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll of July 21-24 found that voters over 65 opposed the Obama plan by 35-47. They oppose a government-run insurance plan to compete with private plans by 31-56 and believe that the Obama plan will "cost me money" rather than "save me money" by 57-20!

Only 24 percent of the elderly feel that the Obama plan will lead to better healthcare for "you and your family," while 45 percent believe the quality of care will be worse.

By 61-29, elderly voters reject the idea that "it is possible to have major healthcare reform without increasing the budget deficit. They also say, by 65-29, that it is impossible to have it without raising taxes. Three-quarters expect their personal taxes to go up if the plan passes.

Oddly, for a population that now gets its health services through government-run Medicare, they would rather be in a privately run system than one managed by the government, by 67-7.

Most resistant to change, the elderly voters cite fears that they "will have to change existing healthcare arrangements" as the greatest reason to oppose the Obama plan.The political impact of these findings is enormous. Instead of facing an inchoate unease about Obama's proposals, Democrats who vote for them are likely to find themselves running into the teeth of strong, concentrated elderly opposition.

Fears of rationing and the denial of care are stoking opposition to a fever pitch among the elderly. So widespread is the dissatisfaction with the Obama plan that it may drive the elderly into Republican ranks as surely as Bush's Social Security reforms alienated then in
2005 and drove them into the arms of Democrats.

The factors that animate elderly opposition to the Obama plan are not generally those under discussion in Washington. The polling shows that the elderly are not as fixated on macro issues like the deficit or what taxes must be raised to pay for the program as they are on very specific personal concerns about their continued access to quality medical care. Seniors are less interested in whether there will be a government insurance option than whether they will face rationing of care.

Open-ended questions on a number of surveys find the elderly very worried that they will not be able to get quality-of-life treatments, such as hip or knee replacements, under the Obama program. Others worry that the program will encourage them to give up when facing serious illness and enter hospices to minimize costs to the government.

The Clintons lost the elections of 1994 primarily because of the tax increases the Democratic Congress passed. Healthcare reform was not nearly as important in their defeat as the tax hikes.

But in the elections of 2010, the elderly are likely to respond harshly to the healthcare reforms and, increasingly, may vote Republican as a result.

For his part, Obama faces a tough dilemma. The more he enlists his personal popularity in his campaign for healthcare reform, the more his job approval ratings will drop -- as they have recently. And the lower these ratings go, the less likely he is to be able to persuade his party to pass his healthcare reforms.

These survey results will come as no surprise to congressmen and senators who go home in August and take soundings in their districts. The opposition of their elderly constituents to the plans making their way through Congress will be obvious. And when they feel the heat, they will, hopefully, see the light.

Where Is The Stock Market Headed? - Click Here Now!

Go to DickMorris.com to read all of Dick's columns!

Rushing to Overspend, Again from Congressman John Shadegg's Blog on the Arizona Republic

Wednesday July 29, 2009

If the White House “misread” our entire economy back in January, should we trust it to read—and manipulate—even a fraction of the economy now? Logic says no. Yet, the health care industry makes up approximately one sixth of the entire U.S. economy, and many Washington Democrats are rushing to redesign it in the next week.

Think it won’t happen? Let’s take a trip down memory lane… The push to pass the stimulus bill was frenzied and hasty. Over $787 billion was spent before you could say “shovel-ready.”

Fast forward six months. Unemployment has climbed to nearly 10% as stories of wasteful stimulus projects are repeated on a daily basis. Whether it’s putting skylights in a state alcohol warehouse in Montana or buying a dishwasher in Colorado with money meant for meals, stimulus dollars seem to be going towards everything except creating jobs.

Now, with only a single week to go before the August break, the CBO is estimating that despite the cost-cutting rhetoric, the House Democrats’ health care proposal will increase America’s deficit by $239 billion over the next ten years. $239 billion is an awfully large increase for health care reform that was supposed to “save” money. It’s also a lot of money to spend by next week.

Americans are all wondering how they are going to afford their health care in their budgets.

Shouldn’t Congress? It is time for liberal lawmakers to learn from their mistakes and think through their health care reform proposal before it’s rushed to the floor for a vote. Last time Washington panicked and overspent, the American people didn’t get the economic recovery they paid for.

Are we going to get the health care we pay for? The answer will be “no” unless Americans speak out and make their voices heard in the halls of Congress.

ALG Video: Socialized Medicine Is Coming

CLICK HERE TO SEE THE VIDEO

For Everything Else By William Warren

SOCIALISM DOESN'T WORK - EVEN IN CHINA By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on DickMorris.com on July 27, 2009

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Buried amid its astonishing annual growth rate, even in the recession, is the sad story of China's socialist sector, a huge and perennial drag on its economy. The failure of government control amid the success of private initiative is a story that President Obama would do well to study as he brings government control and management to the automobile and banking industries in the United States.

In China, 80 percent of all investment activity comes from bank loans largely controlled by the government -- a harbinger of what Obama will bring to the United States as TARP-funded banks increasingly have to bow to federal regulation and pressure.

And, as is to be expected when the state runs the banks, the lending goes disproportionately to state-owned enterprises (read: General Motors).

These companies get 70 percent of the nation's investment capital (and the figure is rising) but only produce between one-quarter and one-third of all output in the country.

An article by John Lee explains that China's "move towards an unbalanced state-led model did not occur by accident but was the result of deliberate policy" in the wake of the Tiananmen Square demonstrations.

Prior to Tiananmen -- when 80 percent of the poverty alleviation China has experienced took place -- fixed-asset investment by the private sector grew at 20 percent per year. Since then, it has dropped to almost half that level.

At the same time (again, a prophesy of the result of Obama policies), the number of government officials shot up from fewer than 20 million in the early 1990s to the 46 million that now bloat the government payroll.

We are developing our own equivalent of the Chinese state sector through Obama's takeover of General Motors and his insistence on keeping banks that took TARP money on a tight leash. By controlling bank lending (and refusing to let most banks repay the TARP loans) Obama is replicating the Chinese experience.

Indeed, as he forces banks to convert the preferred stock he made them give the government to common (and therefore voting) stock, he hastens the day of federal control of the banks and, through them, of the economy (see our warnings in Catastrophe).

In doing so, he might consider the total failure of the Chinese economy's state-controlled sector, a drag on its overall privately induced sensational economic growth.

$80,000 - Your Share of the Bailout. Are You Ready?

Obama T-Shirts: Shock Your Friends and Neighbors

Do You Support Obama's New Healthcare Plan? Vote Here Now!


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The Carter Syndrome By Robert Romano

07/28/2009

On July 15th, 1979, in the dying days of his Administration, Jimmy Carter famously uttered that the American people faced a “crisis of confidence” characterized by the “growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation.”

Real inspiring stuff, that was. So much so that it was termed his “malaise” speech.

Faced with hyperinflation that year at 13.3 percent, energy shortages, escalating unemployment at 5.7 percent that would rise to 7.8 percent in July the following year, and a dismal public approval rating at 25 percent, Carter sought to frame the problem as being the people’s attitude towards government, and not with the government itself that had so completely failed.

“Often you see paralysis and stagnation and drift,” he said, proposing “faith in our ability to govern ourselves,” higher taxes, import quotas on energy, and generally more government
to deal with problems created by more government.

All together, Carter mentioned the word “crisis” ten times. And now, some thirty years later, Jimmy Carter has met his match as the most depressing president ever. Enter Barack Obama, the man for whom “never let a crisis go to waste” has become a daily mantra.

Already under the Obama Administration, high inflation is projected as all but inevitable due to an uncontrolled monetary expansion and record-setting deficit spending. Unemployment is ready to top 10 percent. And the public approval rating of Obama is sinking like a millstone in still waters.

According to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters, although Obama is only half a year into his term of office, already fifty percent of Americans disapprove of his frenzied, fear-mongering performance. Forty percent strongly disapprove, while only thirty percent strongly approve, showing an increasingly negative trend.

And like his gloomy predecessor, Obama is not inspiring any sort of hope with his policies. Or his words.

After all, this is the president who has told Americans they will have to learn to live on “rationed” health care. He’s told Americans to drive smaller cars. And, of course, just like Jimmy Carter, he has advised us all to lower our thermostats.

In fact, the more he touts his plans to ration health care, limit it to the elderly, and take away private health options, the more the American people learn about his actual agenda. And the less they like his ideas. Obama cannot even win over those in his own party to a proposal that promises to forever put a government bureaucrat between Americans and their doctors.

Things have gotten so bad on Capitol Hill that Nancy Pelosi and Henry Waxman are considering bypassing entirely the House Energy and Commerce committee where seven Blue Dog Democrats along with Republicans are blocking the sickly legislation from reaching the floor.
“The health care bill is unfortunately in trouble,” said Congressman John Conyers (D-MI) on July 24th as the wheels fall off the Obama train.

Which is what happens when politicians peddle fear and attempt to ransom the future prosperity of all Americans. Barack Obama could have avoided the mistakes of Jimmy Carter’s past. Instead he is repeating them—leaving much “malaise” in his wake. Better stock up on Prozac.

And somewhere out in the hinterlands is a bright-eyed, self-assured politician with a penchant for espousing “faith triumphant over fear” who is about to show Barack Obama what happens when, once again, it’s “morning in America.”

Robert Romano is the Senior Editor of ALG News Bureau.

Give It A Rest By William Warren

COP SAYS OBAMA LOST HER VOTE

'I supported him. I voted for him. I will not again'...

Obama slammed as 'racist' at Jerusalem rally By Aaron Klein WorldNetDaily

July 27, 2009

JERUSALEM – President Obama's policies against Jewish construction
in eastern Jerusalem and the strategic West Bank were slammed as "racist" today by participants in a rally drawing about 2,000 Israelis in front of the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem.

"George Mitchell go home!" yelled protestors in front of the U.S. government building.

Mitchell, Obama's envoy to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is here discussing the American administration's call for a halt to all Jewish settlement activity, including natural growth or accommodating the needs of existing Jewish populations in the areas in question.

The protest began in front of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's official residence. Marchers then made their way to the U.S. consulate about one block away.

"Obama should not be pressing Israel to compromise and freeze building in Judea, Samaria and eastern Jerusalem," protest organizer Yaacov Steinberg told WND.

Israel already done for? Read Aaron Klein's "The Late Great State of Israel"

"All these steps in the past just brought more Palestinian terror and showed Israeli weakness," said Steinberg, director of a coalition of West Bank Jewish organizations.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE

OBAMA'S DWINDLING POWER By DICK MORRIS

Published on TheHill.com on July 21, 2009

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Superficially, the United States appears to have a presidential system, but in fact it more and more resembles a parliamentary form of government. When a president loses the approval of the majority of the voters and polls reflect that his ratings have fallen substantially below 50 percent, he loses his power.

In this context, polls are like parliamentary votes of no confidence in European systems. While the government does not fall if it loses in the polling, it limps on until either its ratings improve or it is voted out of office at the next election.

Clinton was called "irrelevant" after the congressional defeats of 1994, when his ratings hovered in the high 30s. Bush seemed almost out of power in the last years of his administration, when his approval dropped to the low 30s.

Now Obama faces the loss of power that comes with dropping poll numbers.

The two early symptoms of this creeping impotence are his inability to pass the union card-check legislation or to force action on healthcare before the August recess, once highly touted administration goals.


As is usually the case, the apparent cause of these defeats -- the buildup of public disapproval of both bills -- is not what is really at work. Rather, it is the president's obvious inability to improve the economy that is exacting the daily toll in his approval ratings evident in all of the surveys.

Like the body counts that mounted in Iraq and drove Bush's numbers ever downward, the rising unemployment numbers are stripping Obama of his popularity and power.

Obama's very activism in promoting the stimulus package in January as a cure-all has set him up for failure now that he cannot deliver on his overblown promises.

Unlike Clinton's presidency, Obama's cannot be rescued by good public relations. His obvious failure to turn the economy around drags him down at every turn. Will the group of moderate Democrats that is increasingly blocking his programs prove to be a lasting coalition?

As long as Obama's economic failures continue, they will grow and harden in their opposition to his radical agenda. Once their president's popularity tanks, Democratic centrists will not look forward to running in an election defending his policies.

The race to distance themselves from his failures will be on.

That's not how Republicans work. Among the GOP, the tendency to hunker down and follow the leader into oblivion is all too obvious. The elections of 2006 and 2008 provide vivid examples.

But Democrats, particularly those who sit nervously astride red states, are not made that way. Their proclivity toward dissent and independence, muzzled in times of presidential popularity, emerges when approval ratings drop.

Despite having 60 votes in the Senate, it is a serious question as to whether Obama will be able to get his controversial programs passed in the fall. The public mood is congealing against his healthcare proposals, and skepticism over the impact of cap-and-trade on American manufacturing is growing.

While voters are idealistically determined to cover the uninsured, they are more selfishly concerned about their own healthcare. And they are loath to trust the man who sold them on the stimulus package when he says that their care will be protected.

More and more, they are asking the very simple question that Obama cannot answer: How is he going to cover 50 million new people without more doctors?

The elderly are coming to understand that his plan effectively repeals the bedrock guarantee in Medicare that seniors can get whatever care they want for free. The opposition to healthcare changes is building so fast that Obama was forced to retreat from his August deadline. And it's unlikely that he will be able to make a successful stand in September or October, when his ratings will likely be 10 points lower than they are today.

Glenn Beck Hits NY Times #1 Bestseller, Check It Out
Jim Rogers: Commodities About to Explode in Price
Special: Your Belly Fat is Dangerous -- See Doctor's Fat Cure

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OBAMA DROPS UNDER 50%

Sunday, July 26, 2009

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 29% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11. That’s the first time his ratings have reached double digits in negative territory (see trends).

These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the President’s prime time televised press conference. The number who Strongly Approve of the President has remained unchanged since the press conference but the number who Strongly Disapprove has gone up by five percentage points (from 35% on Wednesday morning to 40% today).

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter.

The President received generally poor grades for his response to a question about a Cambridge police incident involving a black Harvard professor. However, the results show a huge divide between black Americans and white Americans on all questions.

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama’s numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That’s because some of the President’s most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.

The President is now seen as politically liberal by 76%. That’s up six points from a month ago, 11 points since he was elected, and the highest total to date. Forty-eight percent (48%) now see him as Very Liberal, up 20 points since he was elected (Premium Members can see trends and crosstabs.)

Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.” Topics include health care, the economy, 2012, state polls, and more.

While the President’s ratings have slipped over the past month, 54% believe that President George W. Bush is still primarily to blame for the nation’s economic problems. Just 25% believe that the economic stimulus package has helped the economy.

California Senator Barbara Boxer is clinging to a four-point lead in her bid for re-election.

Fifty-three percent (53%) now

oppose the Congressional health care reform package. That’s up eight points over the past month. Just 20% now see health care as the most important of the President’s priorities. Nearly twice as many, 37%, say deficit reduction is most important.

See recent demographic highlights from the Presidential Tracking Poll. For more measures of the President’s performance, see Obama By the Numbers.

Please take our Daily Prediction Challenge and predict the results of upcoming polls.

If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.

When comparing Job Approval data from different firms, it's important to keep in mind that polls of likely voters and polls of all adults will typically and consistently yield different results. In the case of President Obama, polls by all firms measuring all adults typically show significantly higher approval ratings than polls of likely voters. Polls of registered voters typically fall in the middle. Other factors are also important to consider when comparing Job Approval ratings from different polling firms.

A Fordham University professor has rated the national pollsters on their record in Election 2008. We also have provided a summary of our results for your review.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past four years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased.

Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 39.0% Democrats, 32.5% Republicans, and 28.5% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numbers page. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.